Will Spain be a victim of Catalan separatists?

Anyone looking for evidence of how irrational politics can be to see the case of Catalonia at this time.

Earlier this month, Catalan separatists in the Spanish parliament voted against Spain's national budget proposal of 2019, Socialist Pedro Sánchez, for which early general elections were held in late April. The separatists retaliated against Sanchez because he did not accept the referendum on the independence of Catalonia. The last referendum held in October 2017 – declared illegal by the Spanish Constitutional Court and boycotted by opponents of independence -, It has plunged Spain into the most serious political crisis since the death of General Francisco Franco in 1975.

Forcing the government to call early elections and thus provoke the fall of the Sánchez government – came to power in June after a vote of no confidence against the Spanish president's Spanish president, Mariano Rajoy, – Catalan separatists seem willing to lose the best chance they have had in decades to promote Catalan autonomy.

The Sanchez government supported the dialogue with the Catalan separatists; Meritxell Batet, Minister of Territorial Policy and Public Service of Spain, has given prominent positions to many Catalans within his cabinet. the autonomy of all regions of Spain.

These victories could quickly disappear if the People's Party returns to powerSomething that the separatists apparently knew when they voted against the budget proposal. The newspaper The country He reported that the separatist leaders had voted "with sinister expressions" because they knew that they would most likely contribute to the formation of a new government that could again give Madrid direct control of Catalonia, as the Rajoy government did in 2017.

Indeed, It is possible that a new right-wing government in Madrid becomes even more intolerant of Catalan separatism than Rajoy was.

From Rajoy's exit, the Popular Party hardened its position against Catalan separatism, due in large part to the rise of Vox, a new right-wing party that made a splash in December in the regional elections in Andalusia, where it won 12 seats in the Andalusian Parliament thanks to a speech combining a anti-immigrant rhetoric the crisis of Catalonia. Vox even called for the complete abolition of Spain's regional self-government system and to prohibit the existence of separatist political parties.

Why would the separatists want this result? For the simple fact that there is still no viable way to ensure the independence of Catalonia. Since 2011, the conservative and social democratic governments of Madrid have rejected the referendum on the independence of Catalonia authorized by the state. Catalan separatists therefore bet on political victimization as the best strategy to revive the project of independence. To do so, they must present Catalonia as a victim of the brutal oppression of Madrid, hoping to be able to get the international support their cause needs.

Carles Puigdemont, who was president of Catalonia until his escape to Belgium – where he is now – to flee the persecution of the Spanish authorities for declaring the independent Catalonia republic, took advantage of the violence triggered by the referendum of 2017 to prove that Madrid is prepared to take excessive measures to deprive the Catalans of the right to self-determination. During a recent trip to the United States, Quim Torra, successor to Puigdemont, accused the Spanish government of violating civil and political rights in Catalonia and imprisoning "political prisoners" .. At home, Catalan separatists have said that the trial of the twelve organizers of the illegal referendum, accused of rebellion and sedition, which began this month, is a persecution of Catalan nationalism.

But for the strategy of victimization to succeed, the separatists need a better deal than Sánchez and his socialist government. Instead of dialogue and compromise, the separatists seem to want intolerance and intransigence, perhaps even a dose of violence. In other words, they want a popular party government backed by Vox y Ciudadanos, a center-right party in Catalonia vehemently opposed to Catalonia's independence.

Following the In Spain, because of the fragmentation of the party system, it is difficult to predict the results of an election of more than a month. However, given recent polls, it is easy to imagine that the Popular Party – with the support of Ciudadanos and Vox – could replace Sánchez.

The consequences of a government coalition led by the Popular Party and integrating Vox would go beyond the question of Catalonia. This would be the first time that the far right has been running the Spanish government since Franco's death, and the ravages of Spanish democracy would be enormous. This could jeopardize the rights of women, immigrants and the LGBT community, achieved after such strenuous efforts. This could also trigger a wave of nationalism never seen in Spain since the Franco regime, which would undermine the regional government not only in Catalonia, but also in other regions, such as the Basque Country.

To allow the rise of the far right within the government would also be an affront to the traditional values ​​of the Catalan nationalist movement. Since the transition to democracy, this movement has given more priority to Catalan autonomy than to its independence. Its progressive wing, represented by Esquerra Republicana, a political party founded in the 1930s, has long advocated the rights of women, workers and badual minorities.

Separatists must also consider that it is not at all clear whether a right-wing government can bring the region closer to independence. In reality, the victimization strategy in Catalonia could have the effect of weakening democracy throughout Spain.

Omar G. Encarnación is Professor of Political Studies at Bard College and author of "Democracy without Justice in Spain: The Politics of Forgetfulness", among other works.

* Copyright: 2019 The New York Times Press Office