Will they be encouraged to deindex their retirement?

Of & # 39; dollar calm down & # 39; The government's goal, namely to reach Oct. 27, was to define a "calm gap". "How did Mauricio Macri transform you?? " It could be the remix of the question of the 2015 debate asked by Daniel Scioli. Only three weeks after the presidential elections, the difference between the & # 39; account on liqui & # 39; and the official dollar is only 13% is almost miraculous taking into account the end of IMF support, the selective default and the porosity of official stocks.

But what matters is what will happen since Monday, October 28th. At age 27, you arrive with the current stock or increase it if necessary. There are 14 business days left to play. The sun comes out on election Sunday and there will only be 8 minutes of light. Is Alberto Fernández aware of the limited time available to him before total darkness? The technical teams are concentrated in the UMET (Metropolitan University for Education and Work) of the unionist Víctor Santa María in Sarmiento at 22:00 at CABA. The first test of the Frente de Todos candidate, if he succeeds, will be the appointment of his ministers and the impact he has on the markets. Argentine bonds now weigh about 40 dollars, but they can easily drop to 20 dollars if a delay in negotiations with the IMF begins to be anticipated and a default that goes from selective to "total". You can always be worse. On the other hand, optimistic, the new president manages to bail out the agreement with the IMF, to reschedule the deadlines of its debt and to implement sound monetary and budgetary policies, correcting the situation. It's inherited.

The sun would shine again. The reputation of those named in the new economic team is essential to get out of the dark. Without this initial reputation, they must exaggerate their first steps to gain trust. If you do not have it, you have to buy it or win it. Even the times are important. If there was no trip from the future economic team to Washington between October 28 and December 10, it would mean that they did not understand that there was only 8 minutes left from light.

Matías Kulfas is already working on the social agreement for 180 days. Also improving the productivity of the economy. The businessmen who attended the meeting at the headquarters of the Argentine Industrial Union seven days ago were struck by the fact that the economic voice was Cecilia Todesca and not Kulfas. There is nothing strange there: Kulfas and Todesca are like ying and yang; they can be opposed in one direction but they complement each other. They have known each other for 30 years. There is an almost fraternal relationship. Alberto Fernández did not explain anything about the economic cabinet. There are those who claim that Cristina vetoed a candidate minister for litigation between 2007 and 2011, but her need erases the conflicts of the past. Just see where Alberto Fernández is. The businessman Hugo Sigman is today important in the approach of names and recommendations.

In the meantime, in albertism, you take a close look at Mauricio Macri's "crazy pen", as they call the signature of president's decrees, like that of the ART of last week, and before the freezing of gasoline and the reduction of VAT on food and income. To subtract the votes of Gomez Centurion in the last 48 hours, he participated in a tribute to fallen soldiers in the 29th Infantry Regiment of Monte, Formosa, during a Montoneros attack in October. 1975, and reverses his position against abortion.

Businessmen and guilds are evolving rapidly, according to expectations as rational as Argentina. They are preparing for the agreement for 180 days. Some forming a price mattress and others a mattress of salary increases for peers to whom they will set a ceiling in 2020. Another additional element applied to the expectations of entrepreneurs: they anticipate a more closed economy, either by vocation of Alberto Fernández, either by the shortage of dollars in the BCRA and that forces to buy purchases abroad. Mercosur will pose another problem: Jair Bolsonaro wants to expand it, open it, and Alberto Fernández, if he wins, will close the economy. He had already promised to the textile and footwear entrepreneurs.

The big problem in Argentina, today and forever, is the prosecutor. Without deindexing the adjustment of pensions and social spending, the derailment of the public accounts becomes unachievable. The past is very recent in this regard: on December 20, 2017, changes to the indexation of pensions were approved, but 14 tons of stones were launched in Congress. Will a future government of Alberto Fernández be encouraged to make this fundamental change for the future of his leadership? Whatever you do not say or do not do on December 10th, assume it will be late. The "Big Social Agreement" umbrella for 180 days may be essential to camouflage the most relevant measure for the success of a new economic program.

In the province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof plans to win votes to control the Senate of Buenos Aires. You know the governor. He directs his bishops to Mar del Plata, Bahía Blanca and La Plata, that is to say the vast districts in which the electoral situation is the most difficult today because of the presence of Together for change. The closing of the campaign, according to the decisions of Alberto Fernández at the national level, could be located in one of these three districts. The dollar debt of Buenos Aires is also failing. There are unpaid deadlines in 2020 for provincial finances, with the difference that foreign trials against PBA have little to capture: there are no frigates nor assets in general at Buenos Aires. Will Kicillof make a friendly offer to bondholders abroad? Many questions for only 8 minutes that will have sunlight.