Winds continue to favor Macri

Then, his main concepts:

• The winning streak continues
  

  Mauricio Macri
  
  in the electoral race. Several elements beneficial to the ruling party come together in these hours. There is evidence of a relative improvement in social humor confirmed by reliable successive measures of consumption and clearly in investigations, where all coincide in a virtual link between Macri / Pichetto and Alberto / Cristina.

• The disparate economic recovery, which continues to prove itself in May and June and could be strengthened if the government drew without drama
  

  STEP
  
  and it is maintained with a chance of victory, now a novelty has emerged that could be decisive for the medium and moderate sectors.

• The highly identified unions with Kirchnerism as aerospace guilds and whose leaders are known are opposition activists have launched the threat of wildcat strikes against pbadengers during the winter holidays. all in the context of an escalation of an opposition union aimed at weakening the government in a key context regarding the electoral definition.

• The widespread rejection of public opinion in the first exercise of this plan, with hundreds of cancellations of flights last week before the long weekend, prompted a strong reaction from the government. Casa Rosada has decided to redouble its efforts and to confront the most opposed and identified trade union leaders with violent union practices.

• More subtle was the threat of the leader of the bankers, Sergio Palazzo, radical left close to Cristina Kirchner, but very professional in his union career and with the firm intention to become the future head of the CGT. Like Moyano, Palazzo aims to expand its power and become a benchmark for the future: it already controls nearly 80,000 affiliates and is looking for around 20,000 more. services, actually perform banking tasks.

• It will be interesting to follow the saga of this union escalation. In the opposition camp, Alberto Fernández's campaign strategists stood up to the news of the air strikes. They demanded the suspension of all union practices that affect the middle clbad: no stopping of teachers, let alone transportation or essential services.
• To the government, as always, hawks and pigeons. The President opened a parliamentary debate on the regulation of the right to strike in basic services, including education. In addition, advance justice by filing criminal complaints against those responsible. This is not the first time that the government promises to face the most combative unions. But the single dispute, in principle, adds more to the party in power than the others.
• As we said the week before, the economy, even in a different and relative way, continues to show an improvement in numbers compared to the first half of the year. The specialist
  Guillermo Olivetto confirmed in a note published by LA NACION that its figures show month-to-month improvements in the various consumer segments since May and June. At present, the discussion is no longer about the end of the recession, but about the degree of recovery of the economy and the possibility that it will change the social atmosphere.
• For its part, the economist Miguel Ángel Broda has calculated in his latest report that the stimulus plans for the consumption for the election year exceeded 200 billion pesos, between loans from Anses to retirees and those beneficiaries of social schemes, freezing tariffs. Now 12 and incentives for the purchase of 0 km. The latter also constituted a gesture of the government to Governor Schiaretti and the highly concentrated automotive industry in Cordoba and Buenos Aires by Maria Eugenia Vidal.
• Thus, Macri's chances of re-election will improve if the economy stabilizes and the margin begins to improve, with international markets playing out and the dollar anesthetized, with more money for consumers. Nominal increases in income and a brake on inflationary dynamics.
• If the deterioration of the economy is stopped, the opposition would lose arguments, while there would be contradictions and debates that would impact the career of Alberto Fernández.
• Just as Macri seems to experience favorable winds, the opposite is of course true for his main opponent. For the moment, most political marketing experts agree that the former chief of staff is not a good political product to put on the gondola. He is not a good speaker, he does not look like a young and healthy person, he is listening in economic matters and his pbadage in the government of Néstor and Cristina, then his subsequent performance as a Cristina's tenacious opponent does not stand up to any file and they put him in a fortunate position. permanent discomfort. Above all, it is also about bringing moderate voters.
• This relativizes even the threat of a Kiciloff victory with Cristina in the province of Buenos Aires and a radicalization against Macri in the presidency. Everyone seems to have learned from the La Rúa experience, especially the differences between the current moment and this political and economic moment. Also the characters in game.
• On the one hand, Macri has already shown that it was not De la Rúa. Especially because now it is not necessary patacones or corralito. As we have seen, the deficit can be reduced by a devaluation. And the most surprising: you can win an election after the adjustment. On the contrary, it would be Kiciloff who could have problems in La Plata if he does not pay wages without the help of Casa Rosada
• As the economic crisis subsides, space is reduced to questioning the government, and the ruling party's arguments become better than in the past: public liberties, republican climate, respect for those who think otherwise, foreign policy, rules of fundamental market of the economy, Indec independent and credible, more decent and effective management in the subcontracting and the realization of public works or within the framework of public policies of fight against the crime.
• All the elements with which the government can take advantage. As long as something does not happen that has a negative impact on the economy. Only a black swan in the PASO could change the climate of optimism prevailing today at Casa Rosada. None of this appears in the polls.

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