Witch hunt at the Patria Institute, the harsh conditions of Roberto Lavagna and the epic deficit zero – 03/17/2019

Volatile offer for a request that has already decided

The volatility of the electoral offer still does not respond to the firmness of the public demand. This tip of the political market is stable and emphasizes the same needs as usual, and seems to meet in 2019 the same preferences of 2015, when the difference between Cambiemos and Péronisme had not reached 3 points, when 39, a vote. This volatility is a consequence of two factors: 1) the tumultuous management of the government, which was tied to the IMF's mast like Ulysses when he sailed with his people on the islands of Sicily, to resist the siren songs. He believes that he will realize the love of the people if he persists in the epic of the Zero Deficit. It's logical because they will qualify you for the result of this effort. But this has more than one enigma: will the price come in time to save the government during the polls? As in the Odyssey, Ulysses tied himself to the mast of the ship, without covering his ears like his sailors, to protect himself from the fatal hymn of the sirens. For something, it was the driver.

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2) The formidable crisis of parties that leaves everything in the hands of the caciques. Let's change to resist this armed instability that gives the government. This allowed him to launch his candidate, Macri, last December and perform competitive field exercises since the approval of the 2019 budget. This law is a political agreement with the governors, who has mutual benefits for the Opposition and for the Government. Macri Nation spent the summer and closed processes like the one in Neuquén, where it played the winning chip and He degraded the legend that crystallinism was unstoppable in the emirate of Vaca Muerta. 1 to 0

Peronists with more stuttering

Peronism does not follow from the disintegration of not having a leader or a program, and with wounded territorial deployment in at least six of the seven largest districts in number of votes. He celebrates every day the economic malandanza of the government, but he must explain the crisis of its main figures. Cristina, la-que-mide-más, came in surprisingly in a personal emergency and went to Cuba to attend a family crisis that affects everyone. His departure undressed the precariousness of this army.

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At the Institute of the Fatherland there is a witch hunt know who composed the video that was transmitted with music, images and words of the former president, in which she explains her situation. The piece of proselytism begins with the sentence "You listen to this because …", which shows that these words had no video destination, and that someone did the mixing. The video served to release thea plot of the fall of his candidacy. For his real campaign manager, Alberto Fernández, he now knows he could ask him at one point: "And what will you do if I do not leave? "

These words, spoken in intimacy, now reach meaning, much more than interpretations of entornistas. The same fragility has manifested two other Peronists, among the heaviest, and that this week will act to The most important photo of the opposition: Juan Schiaretti and Roberto Lavagna. Cordovan is surely the man who has more political power in Peronism. It governs the second largest province and no one neglects it to repeat the mandate. He told Miguel Pichetto the week before that He does not have the health to be a presidential candidate. But before that, he had left the presidency and was not so sick.

Lavagna is surely the most prestigious of the Peronist tribune and is ready, without hesitation, to play in all respects of a presidential candidate. This Thursday, he will speak at a luncheon of the Foundation for the Mediterranean, then he will meet Schiaretti. If not surrounded so much country spice bread, would be the picture of a strong formula of Peronism. But Lavagna also sets up difficult compliance conditions: that there is unity of the sectors of Peronism and other socialist parties, margaritos, ricardistas – and that there is a STEP with a consensus formula, but in which he is, of course, him.

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Lavagna conditions disarm Peron alternatives

The party in power flourishes thanks to poker games revealing its pessimism: Cristina agrees that its entornists question her willingness to be a candidate, Schiaretti takes refuge in the cloisters of Cordoba and Lavagna asks the Peronism an elasticity that costs him blood. This bet on the same screen expresses mistrust in the future. It also discourages wills. It is Sergio Mbada who brought him back to Lavagna on stage in 2012, after the 2007 presidential adventure.

Today, although he is an experienced cornice hiker, he can not guess what is behind Lavagna's smile, from whose mouth there is no confirmation of candidacy. A champion Lavagna, because to drive him mad in Mbada is a feat. For Urtubey, this spirit of Lavagna also disarms the game. He joined the election in Salta with the presidential election imagining that he would run for president of a Peronist PASO. The unification of the date is a function of his intention to ensure the governance of a negotiated successor, to whom he would bring his own votes as a presidential candidate. For him, a formula agreed with Lavagna brings him out of the game.

This difficult task of the projects of others forces the Table of Four (Schiaretti, Mbada, Urtubey, Pichetto) to be together again as owners of the hoof. Schiaretti will tell Lavagna that there will be a step to give everyone a chance and that they will only talk about it if he seriously engages with the Peronist Alternative label. Roberto's answer to this slogan will define the destiny of all. This may be the news of the week for Peronism and advance the meeting of the Four. A detail: in discussion groups According to the command of the Mbadismo campaign, what the public remembers most of this seal is the image of Cuatro in the offices of Guillermo Seita, responsible for Thursday's meeting in Córdoba. These investigations mark the behavior of the characters. Next Saturday, for example, Mbada will be in Río Gallegos for a penetrating act of secretary's aroma, such as taking charge of the new bishop of this diocese. Jorge García Cuerva, who did his homework in the village of La Cava de San Isidro and in the pastoral care of the penitentiary. He is a priest badociated with the group of San Isidro – emeritus Jorge Casaretto – whom Pope Bergoglio sent to Lomas de Zamora (where he was auxiliary bishop) and now to Rio Gallegos.

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Mbada is a friend of the new bishop and the trip will allow him to take a pious photo, but will also be close to Alicia Kirchner, who will attend the ceremony.

The supreme command of change brings the house to Macri

In the oficialismo already works a campaign political leadership that separates above the table of change and below the tunnels that communicate to the tribes that coexist under the umbrella of the Balotaje party. This command meets in Olivos in the offices of the presidential area, but in the absence of Macri. They integrate it Marcos Peña, Elisa Carrió, Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, Maria Eugenia Vidal, Mario Quintana and Maxi Ferraro, president of the coalition. There is currently no representative of the Radical Civic Union, although Carrio has the personal representation of Gerardo Morales, Macri's closest radical.

Jujeño is of the race of creative radicals, and is today the object of study of Peronism in its role as inventor ofthe great morals ". In 2015, he was a candidate for governor of Jujuy, hanging on the formulas of Macri and Mbada. The mayors of Peronism in Buenos Aires are studying a similar format: elect a single candidate for governor, who is then hanged on several presidential candidates by the PJ. This role in the decision table encourages Carrio to act cautiously with the radicals. For example, he said nothing about Lousteau's candidacy for the appointment of the senator to the judiciary held by Federico Pinedo, a key man of the ruling party. For those who see double or who misinform with the bad guard of Olivos, this command was gathered in the presidential residence on Friday, March 7, without the presence of the president. The next day, Carrió's went to Los Abrojos, where he met with Macri to overcome the imbalance between Mario Negri and Ramón Mestre in Córdoba.

At Friday's meeting, Negri's pro-government stance was defeated and Mario and Carrio's support map was designed for inland campaign events. The coalition leader received Larreta, Quintana and Fabian Rodríguez Simón Thursday at his home in the Lord's Chapel, and warned them that after the Easter break, she would not be available to enter the church. inside. Carrió generally respects the liturgy of Lent and attends the rituals of Ash Wednesday to Easter Sunday. Armed with the countryside, his partners Cambiemos, who have a brown piety to which three paternosters do not remedy, agree to these conditions, which Carrio imposes with the firmness with which Juanjo Aranguren drew the tariff line. You like or you leave. I stay, say the visitors to the sanctuary of the chapel.

It seemed impossible: Bolsonaro and Piñera run to Macri right

Fans wishing to draw conclusions about the behavior of others based on contiguity will have free grbad this week. Mauricio Macri will be with Jair Bolsonaro and Sebastián Piñera twice in 48 hours. The president must be kept out of the wires, but they do not take care of the global thread.

Opponents want to show Bolsonaro as a mentor to the official security policy, while Patricia Bullrich said her portfolio had already taken radical positions much earlier, which she shares with opponents like Sergio Mbada. which since 2013 muscle asking for an easy trigger. He gave him votes in 2013, but that was not enough for him to continue in the race. The government wants to do this identification in the campaign, to meet the demands of greater security and, in the same way, corner the opposition – as it does for initiatives such as the extinction of domination – in the court of those who defend the wicked. Bolsonaro and Piñera go to Buenos Aires for the South-South Summit of the UN.

The Chilean will take the opportunity to launch with Macri and colleagues from Uruguay and Paraguay the project of a World Cup in 2030 split between the four countries. But on Friday, the three will reappear in Chile, where Piñera convened a luncheon to show the benefits of his plan to replace Unasur with another seal, Prosur. Unasur was an invention of regional outsourcing that is due to caletre of Lula and Eduardo Duhalde.

It was the OAS without the United States and Canada. There is nothing left, because these utopias were confused and the pendulum pbaded from the other side. Ernesto Samper (who has already resigned from his position as secretary) has hired a cave for a project that nobody knows; a building in Ecuador, which the government of Lenin Moreno pretended to send back to set up a university and the monument to Nestor, who will know who will keep it.

To put it quickly, Piñera wanted another regional construction of the center-right countries, in order to give his administration a global destiny, marked by Chilean insularity. Also to obtain the jealousy of the protagonism of the Group of Lima, gained in the crisis of Venezuela. Friday in Santiago, at dinner time, other presidents, like the Colombian Duke, will try to convince them to form a new group, with seal and fanfare. Bolsonaro will say no – he does not want to go through the steps of Lula or this. Macri will go with Fulvio Pompeo to say that he agrees to form a WhatsApp group that will serve as a mechanism for consultation between presidents in a crisis.

But what he does not want another circus that costs money to be armed, as it happens in the moribund Unasur. The sign of Macri's mood is given by the fact that Jorge Faurie will not travel and will be represented at a previous dinner on Thursday by Under-Secretary for American Affairs, Leonardo Sahores.

The Chancellor stays in Buenos Aires to chair the South-South Assembly, which gives him more income. A slight reproach to Piñera, who is a friend, but there.

CG