With a willingness to dialogue and fight | United States…

From Caracas

Two conclusions emerge from the Venezuelan conflict after almost two weeks of self-proclamation of Juan Guaidó. The first is that the attempt of parallel government resides in the United States, the second is that, for the moment, the main force is also present. They will have to wait until those who have come to the country look for images of a country turned into a scene of open battles. Saturday was a new confirmation of this conclusion that seems to apply at this moment of the attack.

Management: to understand what is happening and what can happen in Venezuela, it is necessary to follow who makes the decisions in the United States. John Bolton (photo), Security Advisor, Mike Pence, Vice President, Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, Elliot Abrams, Special Envoy to Address Venezuela, Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury, Marco Rubio, Republican Senator Donald Trump. To follow Juan Guaidó, or any other leader on the right, to know what can happen is a waste of time.

Pence, for example, delivered a speech at a church in Miami on Friday. There he baderted that it was necessary to "eliminate" the governments of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, that it was a "regional" issue and that that "the trading time was up".

For his part, Bolton retired from the post of leader: "The United States urges all Venezuelan military to follow the direction of General Yánez and to protect peaceful protesters who support democracy." Bolton made reference to Francisco Yánez, general aviation of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb), who aired a video Saturday morning in which he announced his support for Guaidó.

The security advisor also said he would send the so-called humanitarian aid: "At the request of the interim president, Juan Guaidó, and in consultation with his officials, the United States will mobilize and transport the aid. humanitarian aid, surgical supplies and nutritional supplements for the people of Venezuela It is time for Maduro to emerge. "

Guaidó, during the mobilization of the right wing in Caracas on Saturday, said: "We announced the creation of a global coalition for humanitarian aid and freedom in Venezuela.We already have three collection points for aid: Cúcuta is the first, another will be in Brazil and another on a Caribbean island. "His only announcement was the one Bolton had already said. The chain of command is evidence that almost does not try to disguise, but that sometimes needs to be clarified, as Rubio says, who said that "the United States. He did not organize this movement, but he is led by the Venezuelan people. "

Guaidó has specified that a specific point for entry: Cúcuta, a border region characterized by a strong presence of Colombian paramilitaries and smugglers of mafias – or synonyms of paramilitary – where were formed those who attempted to murder Nicolás Maduro last August. This is one of the main points that can be the subject of a critical focus, that of triggering fires, with the particularity of a strong media exposure. It is from there, for example, that Luis Almagro, secretary of the Organization of American States, baderted that the military option against the Maduro government was not ruled out.

It is likely that in this scenario, the center of the conflict alternates between Caracas and these critical points. How do you go into help? With what logistics, strength, permission, actors? What kind of action accompanies the income? The "parallel government" needs territory, capacity to exercise power, two dimensions that it does not possess. The only thing that makes Guaidó "president" at the national level is that the social base of the right so named it. It is obvious that he does not have the strength to carry out a strategy of these characteristics, neither he nor all the good ones brought together.

The government will not let US forces or contracted players open a slot on the national territory. No government would let a foreign force – or its agents – enter without their permission.

The game is locked. USA It states that there will be no dialogue, attempts at rejection such as those of the governments of Mexico and Uruguay, or positions such as that of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, who affirm the need for a dialogue. Some European Union countries have proposed the creation of an international contact group with Venezuela, composed of ten or twelve members, all non-European, in order to advance the proposal for the convening of elections. with a ninety day period to evaluate the results

In this painting, Maduro announced during the mobilization on Saturday, where Chavismo has made a new demonstration of forces that will consult on the possibility of anticipating the parliamentary elections that should be held in 2020. This would be a way to 39, try to disable the National Assembly, with all the risks involved. Is it better to let him advance in a parallel government attempt outside of any law in order to achieve a coup d'etat?

It seems clear at the moment that the United States will advance and use any argument to reinforce their narrative that there will be no negotiation. Many of his messages are meant to break the desire to fight Chavismo and especially the fanb, that they have to leave. For the latter, they created a range from the promise of amnesty to the threats of intervention, through accounts created in social networks so that the soldiers do not obey the generals.

Ends another week in Venezuela. There will be no rest. US speeches refer to a last offensive that they intend to drive. Chavismo remains whole, mobilized, with a will of dialogue and fight.