With more dollars and the government's response opens a new window – 13/04/2019

Friday the fall of big dollar at $ 42.20 This was the result of greater clearance of the export sector's currencies in a market that was evolving in a new scenario.

Monday, the Treasury will begin to liquidate, at the rate of $ 60 million per day, $ 9,600 million of the tranche that the Monetary Fund disbursed last week. And the operators took note that something had changed.

With $ 77,000 million in reserves You can discuss the number of those who are freely available or not, but concretely, the Central Bank has more chips to put on the table during a currency exchange.

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Monday to Friday afternoon.

Is the short term a little clearer? Markets had already advanced last week, when the dollar fell after touching $ 45, as did interest rates. The "gold district" in exchange has started and the first results have been noticed.

Another thing is politics, and it also reflected that the government started to go in two directions: give a signal in terms of concern about inflation and try to put money in the pockets among the sectors most affected by the decline in revenues over the past year.

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In terms of price, the signal is very clear: there will be no frost or anything like that that can come from the government.

President Mauricio Macri he is convinced that any strategy of freezing prices for a certain period, even a short one, leads to a failure for the authorities. He often tells his badociates that "until that Joseph Stalin at the time of the USSR failedor in an attempt to freeze prices. "

The number of products included in the "Attentive prices"?

Probably yes, and if it arises from an agreement with companies and marketing chains. Moderate increases, and even lower prices, are almost the only strategy that allows you to sell a little more in a context of declining consumption over the past year.

The set of measures to announce Wednesday (back to discounts for pensioners who pay with a debit card, and a brake on rate increases for children's allowance recipients, or the extension of delinquency funding plans with AFIP?) will arrive after the bad data March inflation (4%?) to know Tuesday.

The government moves between the leadership of the chief of staff, Marcos Peñaresponding to the demands of its radical allies on the political need to take steps to try to restore consumption, as well as that of the Minister of the Economy, Nicolás Dujovne, that he received from the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, the wink to say that the Argentine economy would have begun get out of the recession.

Lagarde also entered the election campaign when he thought it would be "silly" that the next government, no matter what it was, did not pursue the reform plan initiated by the current government.

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Critics of the opposition came almost instantly. Sergio Mbada and Felipe Solá They took the lead and were tough on Lagarde. Hitting the IMF has always been profitable during an election campaign. And in this case more, because the agency has granted Macri 57,000 million dollars, the largest loan in the region.

The possibility of renegotiating credit with the IMF is on the lips of all politicians. The Fund will receive US $ 3.8 billion in 2021, US $ 18,500 million in 2022, US $ 23,000 million the following year and then there is 0,000 million US dollars in 2014 and less than 2 billion US dollars in 2025.

The payments of 2021 and 2022 are the most committed and today, with closed markets for the country, they would be difficult to meet, but no one is likely to predict the possibility of another default.

Friday, the markets had a very different day from the previous weeks. Strong foreign currency sales by exporters improved the microclimate exchange waiting for more Monday dollars and measures that could somewhat mitigate the sharp drop in consumption. Dollars and waiting open a window.