With more gradualism, Macri tries to arrive until October.

From the beginning of the administration of Cambiemos, just yesterday, we opted for gradualism as opposed to shock. And this despite the fact that empirical evidence has shown that it was a mistake and that since last year the government was paying for the broken plates of this macro strategy. From now on, only restrictions are being reimplemented, which even several economists in the field Cambiemos have been asking since December 10, 2015, for example regarding the liquidation of exports in the short term. Given the prevailing recession, it was not considered that importers' access to the foreign exchange market should be restricted. The risk is that by anticipating additional devaluation, they anticipate or over-invoice shipments. The usual story

The truth is that since STEP, private deposits in pesos have shown some stability. BCRA data show that from August 9 to August 27, private term deposits (non-adjustable and adjustable) declined by only about $ 25,000 million, or about $ 400 million. That is, for the moment, there is no financial scenario and that is what the government is trying to discourage. Since this not only triggers a race, but also spirals and can trigger hyperinflation.

That's why the eye is placed on the argendollars. Between 9 and 27 years, US $ 3,510 million fell to 28,990 million US $. This chain leaves an average of 319 million US dollars each day. This seems good in the disaggregated evolution of the reserves. From PASO to last Tuesday, reserves decreased by 8,832 million USD (average daily 803 million USD). US $ 1,061 million represents the sale of BCRA's foreign currency to the private sector, US $ 52 million to transactions with international organizations, US $ 4,733 million to public sector operations (US $ 2,639 million) REPO payment dollars from foreign banks) and US $ 3,027 million of argenollar lace. If this rate of falling arguments is maintained before the presidential elections, about 12.5 billion US dollars are open. It should be remembered that a similar crisis, the fall of the argendólares was 50% in total. It will be necessary to see if another historical mark appears.

One can not forget that even today, the market is disoriented and confused with the impromptu launch of a debt swap. Now, the government, "fist", is trying to have more foreign currency exported, while limiting the total access to the purchase of foreign currency.

Yesterday, at a meeting at the BCRA attended by the chambers bringing together private, public, national and foreign banks, it was also explained that an attempt was made to avoid the operation of "Counted with liquidation" (another way to blow up the actions of Kirchnerism). Only securities dealers could operate it, not the banks. The BCRA's request to the banks to try to recover all the loans they can, especially from the exporters (the other destination of argendólares with lace in the BCRA) constitutes another advantage of the new measures. The expected effect will be a major contraction of already reduced private credit (it has already fallen by 40% in real terms).

We see that the government is reacting, with some delay to avoid the dreaded "Door 12" effect. Therefore, he tries to leave a "small eye" open, which does not guarantee that the bleeding reserves will slow down. Of course, the flow will be less, for the sole reason that the escape route has been reduced. Creole ingenuity can not be underestimated either. But given the situation, the government must be firm and responsive. Even if it is not to encourage trust.