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dollar
(the rating went from $ 29.57 to $ 29.04 on average to the public) in one day of losses for the rest of the emerging currencies.
The renewed bet to try to leave behind the race was defined at the end of the week, after several meetings between officials of the
BCRA
and Treasury, as expected
THE NACION on the eve. But it did materialize yesterday and will have its pin today with the unprecedented LETE auction, which will underwrite these securities and not just with pesos (at the benchmark exchange rate). yesterday, which closed at $ 28.7217) or dollars
cash, but also in Lebac.
The concrete thing was that the new measures caused a mbadive rearrangement of prices of domestic financial badets which, at the height of the day, was reflected in the% that came to mark the rates of the Lebac (for which it expires in August, which has finally closed at 52% per year.)
Analysts have approved the new official attempt to end the financial storm and the decision to show the economic authorities to clarify that their intention is to close this chapter as soon as possible, after three and a half months of costly reveries.
"The first step in a situation like this is to achieve stabilization of the exchange rate And these measures should help, because LETE's disarmament of Lebac will mean that there is no more overloads
with the high cost and the monetary issue that they meant. In addition, a new step has been taken towards a more effective contractual policy in line with the monetary objectives agreed with the IMF, which is to lower the rate of increase of the monetary base by 29 to 20% ", explains the director. From Estudio Alpha del Villar
"In these circumstances, you must try all the tools so that anyone who wants to dollarise can do so, but in an orderly manner and without putting too much emphasis on the bill. There are companies and people who went in dollars and who will need pesos during the month for their activity: they decided by fear. If the market stabilizes, a new balance will be the logical consequence and it will be obvious that there has been an exaggerated reaction, "said Mariano Sardans, FCI badet manager
Economist Eric Ritondale, consulting firm EconViews, The moment arrives where "fundamentals need to start adjusting to technical values and the market will stabilize because the real exchange rate starts to be consistent with funding Guaranteed via the IMF and the correction that the external deficits imply.If the new measures help to bring it closer, better. "
But his colleague Fernando Baer, of Quantum Finanzas, although he appreciates the measures like "another attempt to stop the tension", believes that "it is not yet clear if we come to a level of the exchange rate that can be considered a balance." And beware of the 39; exchange Lebac / LETE, because if this leads to Treasury funding and is not sterilized, this can have a monetary impact and re-affect demand for pesos, "he warns
.
The day set its tonic shortly before noon, as soon as the BCRA informed the banks of its decision to increase by 3 average points the reserve requirements for all deposits in pesos. It should be recalled that as soon as Luis Caputo badumed the head of the BCRA, a similar increase had been arranged, which would be completed in the middle of the month with a further increase of 2 points
The unexpected decision, which will generate an absorption estimated liquidity, triggered a series of readjustments in the market by forcing banks to sell different instruments (Lebac, dollars, etc.) in order to comply with the integration that took effect the day, which has helped lower the price of the ticket, which had reached a high of $ 28.95 (10 cents above the close of the big Friday closing) and started to fall to close at $ 28.30, which generated a relief through the government.
The rise of lace will in turn increase the rates that banks offer to depositors for term deposits in pesos, which have already increased from 24.7 to 28.1% on average in one year. months and even though they have failed to avoid a skid of $ 13,300 million in the stock is as investments. Due to the level of monetary astringency, it is badumed that they will tend to exceed 30% in the next few days, which should help reduce the trend towards dollarization if the bill finally stabilizes.
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