Withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and Iraq: “It’s a mortal sin for Donald Trump”

Hugo Llorens was the United States’ Ambassador to Afghanistan between 2016 and 2017, which is why he experienced the period of transition between the government of Barack Obama and Donald Trump in this explosive region. On Tuesday, the outgoing president made the decision to withdraw half of the US troops in Afghanistan (to reduce them from 5,000 to 2,500 troops) and also in Iraq by January 15, five days before Trump leaves the White House. However, there are concerns about the withdrawal that could complicate Joe Biden’s strategy for the area. In dialogue with Clarín, Llorens stressed that the Republican “has committed a mortal sin by politicizing the issue” and that “he has taken” a very irresponsible step. “Withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan now is to do it at the worst time”, that “the terrorists will be emboldened” and it will be “a military, political defeat and a catastrophe for the United States and its allies, but also for all the countries which are against terrorism, like Argentina, which suffered from terrorism both in the case of the Israeli embassy and AMIA.

-Why do you think incumbent President Donald Trump made the decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan?

I think he entered the presidency thinking Afghanistan was a big mistake and he wanted to get out of it. I was ambassador at the end of Barack Obama’s presidency and also worked the first year of the Trump presidency. My job in Kabul was to help the new national security team and work for the president to create a new policy towards Afghanistan and South Asia. It was obvious at the time that Trump did not believe in the project and that his position was to try to get out of it. But, in the end, with a lot of work from the Defense Secretary and the National Security Advisor, we managed to get the President to come up with a very good strategy in the end, based on the fact that it was not necessary to ” impose a military solution to the problem, but rather a negotiated solution. But at the same time, the United States was not going to leave in a hurry and we were going to have military forces in a strategy based on conditions that protected the interests of the United States and its allies, and so we could leave the ‘Afghanistan. It is therefore rare that the president has in any way politicized Afghanistan, which is a global problem and a problem related to world peace.

What do you mean?

Very hastily, he sought to get out and withdraw the troops, which was unnecessary because the agreement the United States signed with the Taliban on February 29 spoke of a withdrawal of troops. But there were four elements in this agreement: The first was that the Taliban pledged to collaborate against terrorist groups like Al Qaeda, which still operate in Afghanistan. The second point was that the United States would withdraw its troops from Afghan soil for a period of time. The third element would be negotiations between the government in Kabul – which is an allied government of the United States and NATO – and the Taliban to find an agreement, a political solution to the conflict. The fourth point would be a ceasefire. Once all of that was done, the United States would have no reason to be in Afghanistan. What I would say is that these conditions, these four points are not met because there is no evidence that the Taliban is collaborating with us on the issue of Al Qaeda. Little progress has been made in the negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban, they are very stagnant. In addition, the reality is that the Taliban have stepped up their military operations. So trying to get American troops out of Afghanistan is doing it at the worst possible time. What we have to maintain is a form of pressure, a tool endowed with this military force. It must be remembered that here it is not only the United States, but we are with all our allies like Germany, England, France, etc.

-NATO Secretary General said that a hasty withdrawal could turn Afghanistan into a kind of platform for terrorism.

Totally agree. In Afghanistan, between 18 and 19 of the worst terrorist groups continue to operate in one way or another. Although they have been considerably weakened over the past 20 years, they still exist. If we withdraw, it will be a military and political defeat and it will be a catastrophe for the United States and its allies, but also for all the countries which are against terrorism, like Argentina, which has suffered so many terrorist blows. in the case of the Israeli embassy like AMIA. For all of us, it would be an absolute defeat. The only thing that is going to be achieved is that the terrorists are going to be emboldened. The possibility of Afghanistan again becoming a platform or a base for terrorists to attack my country, Europe or neighboring countries is very high, and it is a risk that we have fought hard for. We made a great effort to throw everything out at the last minute.

-Do you think Trump is doing it to complicate the playing field for President-elect Joe Biden or does he have another goal?

I was very happy at the time of the policy announced by the president in August 2017. But at the last moment, he politicized it because he wants to show the electorate that he realizes this idea of ​​putting an end to the wars which last forever or never. they are finishing. But an issue like Afghanistan, which is so high on the security of the United States, should not be politicized. So I say to the President, with all due respect, that he has committed a mortal sin in politicizing an issue.

-Do you think this measure will hurt Biden or complicate your government’s strategy in Afghanistan?

What they finally decided was to reduce the number of soldiers and I think the military really fought it. We must not forget that he fired the Secretary of Defense (Mark Esper) because he wrote him a memorandum asking him not to reduce the troops any more because it was a danger to our position in Afghanistan. Trump’s reaction was to fire him. I believe what happened is that the army insisted and the president said that at the end of his government he will have 2,500 soldiers left. But it really is a physical impossibility because if all the troops are eliminated you are risking their own lives. It cannot be done that way. You need to understand the dynamics of conflict and its equation. The United States also has large amounts of equipment, with very sophisticated technologies. If we go, we don’t have the capacity to pull it all out in two months or a month and a half. We don’t have enough planes to eliminate all this material that could even fall into the hands of enemies of the United States like the Iranians, the Russians or the Chinese. I think for these reasons the president accepted 2,500. But with 2,500 troops in Afghanistan, the only thing they have the capacity, in such a small number, is to just protect themselves and the embassy. The embassy where I worked is huge, probably the biggest embassy in the world. When I was there, we had 8,600 employees and two government agencies. We have done everything: development, private businesses, education, support for women. US military force will no longer be an instrument to pressure the Taliban to come to the table in good faith and to come to an agreement and achieve peace in a way that is lasting and protects the interests of states. -United. , from Europe or Argentina. I think President Trump has made a very irresponsible decision and is digging a hole for the start of President Biden’s administration.

-Republican Senator Mitch McConnell has said that what happened during Obama’s time with Iraq could be repeated, when a premature withdrawal from that country in 2011 fueled the growth of the Islamic military, do you agree with this analysis?

Totally agree. I believe President Obama made a mistake in withdrawing hastily from Iraq, we paid the consequences and we are still paying the price. I think it would be the same and I even think Afghanistan would be worse. Because the state’s capacity in Afghanistan is weaker, the country is much poorer and a whole host of conditions. Another problem that I would also like to mention is that President Trump has a skeptical view of our experience in Afghanistan and what he does not understand is that a lot of progress has been made there. I am telling you this as a very involved person for many years. I’ll give you an example about education. In Afghanistan in 2000 and 2001, 650,000 children were enrolled in kindergarten through university and there were no women in the education system, they were not allowed to go to school to study. Today in Afghanistan there are 8.5 million children and young people in the education system and 40% are women. In Afghanistan, if there are bad things, there are conflicts, bombs and deaths, but I went to a university and I could sit with some 20 or 21 year old women who were studying law, medicine or a master’s degree in business administration. So in Afghanistan there has been a revolution in people’s thinking. The people do not want the Taliban and in no way want to return to this medieval system that the Taliban imposed on all the people, but especially on women. Another problem is health, in Afghanistan there was no health system in 2001, there were doctors from Médecins Sans Frontières who did humanitarian work. Today in Afghanistan 65% of the population is within a 40-minute walk of a dispensary. We know that the health system is not very advanced, but a lot of progress has been made and we see it in a dramatic drop in maternal and child mortality. The last example is communication. Afghanistan in 2001 was like North Korea. It was a country completely closed to the world, there were several thousand phones all over the country, now in Afghanistan, which has a population of 32 million, they have 20 million cell phones. I once went to the countryside with my safety in the most remote place you can imagine, and saw a woman with her burqa on and completely covered and you could see that below she had her phone and could communicate with other cities. So there has been a revolution in communications. These are three examples of all that has been achieved. This progress must be guaranteed.

-What impact will the withdrawal of troops in the region, beyond Afghanistan?

I think it will destabilize the entire South Asian region if this decision results in the destabilization of Afghanistan. Just look at the geography and Afghanistan is there near Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Iran and it is a very sensitive area where there is many conflicts. It would be like a geopolitical hurricane. But, at the same time, it would destabilize the security of the whole world and it is not an exaggeration because it would send a message to countries like North Korea or Russia that the word of the United States is not valid, that the United States’ engagement with Afghanistan ultimately does not. it happened. This could lead other countries to make dangerous calculations, as the United States is not a reliable ally. It is a decision that has a very negative impact on South Asia, but with global implications.