Without euphoria Monday, the markets are waiting for a good wheel: doubts about the dollar and rates

Markets predict a good wheel Wednesday, but not a euphoria like that experienced on Monday. In the east, the stock markets were trading around midnight with slight increases. Tokyo Nikkei, which was the most concerned indicator, rose by almost 1%. All European stock exchanges participating in pre-opening operations showed positive signs. The one who doubts the most about waking up is the FTSE 100 in London because of the unsolved problem of Brexit. The dollar remained balanced against the euro and US bonds rose slightly.

All this does not hide the fact that the world has a problem. The good mood does not manage to settle. There is reason to fear a fall in economic activity. The positive signals received so far are insufficient and that is why the gains on the markets are fast.

Despite the improvement in China's manufacturing output, the consequences of the trade war with the United States remain in a cloud.

Christine Lagarde He made pessimistic statements. According to the IMF director, although the US Federal Reserve has helped to not raise rates, the risk of a decline in global activity is lagging behind and predicted that emerging countries will not would not have a good time.

Argentina is of course the most vulnerable country in the region and that is why there are doubts about what will happen on Wednesday. Investors do not know whether the dollar's decline of more than 1% – lower than that of Brazil and Mexico – was due to the foreign-born movement or the Central Bank's interest rate measures. ;interest.

For the moment, there are few banks that have increased rates. We will have to see what happens when the time limits expire. But the situation with the Leliq produced an economic panorama which, if it had been applied by an interventionist government, would not have surprised. The Central Bank concentrates 70% of the system's loans by placing Leliq in exchange for fixed payments. This speaks of a nationalization of deposits and credits.

The market is wondering if it is not too expensive to contain the value of the dollar and if it is a necessary condition to win. the elections of October. For this reason, rising rates impresses them less and less.

All ships are burned to keep the dollar in the lowest part of the flotation and put the reactivation in the background. On the other hand, the government continues to call on exporters every day to ask them how much they are going to liquidate for exports. The answers are courtesy because no one knows what their costs will be and what the value of the dollar will be. They know it stays stable for a while, then it goes off. And this, although the measures become more extreme, its effect disappears soon.

Believing that elections are won with a weak dollar, it is to badume that the foreign currency is the cause of all the ills of Argentina, while she is a mere messenger of the "dollar". humor of investors who do not see opportunities to settle in the country because the necessary reforms have not been implemented to reduce public spending and reduce costs and tax burden.

Doubt over the price of the dollar in a few hours will be unveiled: will the loss continue, find a floor or bounce? The answer seems obvious. Another question is whether this dollar level is possible to maintain. The answer lies in investors and fixed-term investors who face maturity in April for $ 600 billion. Half of all fixed deadlines of the private sector in the banking system.