World Bank: Argentina to grow nearly 5% in 2021 and striking forecast for 2022

The second hello from coronavirus will have a impact on global economic recovery, What will grow at a rate of 4% –From 4.2% projected in June by the world Bank-, and will remain 5.3 points (or roughly $ 4.7 trillion) below pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand, we calculate that the global economy contracted by around 4.3% in 2020.

According to the latest report from World Economic Outlook, the reference scenario of 4% is maintained at a gradual improvement in confidence, consumption and trade indicatorsyes, taken advantage of by vaccination process which are beginning to be deployed in various countries around the world; nail accompanying monetary policy and one phasing out of tax incentives.

However, he warns that they still exist risks like a new wave of infections, delays in vaccine distribution, lasting damage to potential output and financial stress derived from a high debt and the lack of growth. In this sense, the organization declared that “the outlook for the global economy is uncertain“and he predicted a minimum scenario in which growth would only be 1.6% if contagion cannot be controlled.

For Latin America and the Caribbean – one of the regions most affected by the pandemic according to the world Bank, with a 6.7% contraction in 2020-, for 2021 a average growth of 3.7% (0.3% more than expected in June) and 2.8% by 2022. The improvement would be linked to vaccination process and the relaxation of quarantines, added to arising oil and metal prices, and one general improvement in the world economy.

On the other hand, high debt levels, the emergence of new social conflicts and the inability to stop the pandemic, are still the main risks for the region.

The Argentina would be one of the best performing countries (4.9%), only below Saint Lucia (8.1%); Guyana (7.8%); Peru (7.6%); Belize (6.9%); Panama (5.1%); and tied with Colombia. Depending on the organization, the possible relaxation of restrictions and an less uncertainty due to debt restructuring, would stimulate the consumption and investment. However, after the 2021 rebound, the world Bank expects Argentina’s growth to fall to 1.9% in 2022.

Follow it Chile (4.2%); Bolivia (3.9%); Mexico (3.7%); Ecuador (3.5%); Uruguay (3.4%); Paraguay (3.3%) and Brazil (3%).

Among advanced economies, The United States will grow by about 3.5% next year, unlike China, which will have a rebound of 7.9%. On the other hand, it is expected that the euro zone expands to 3.6% through better management of the pandemic, andearly start of vaccination and the increase in external demand, especially from China, which recently closed a investment agreement with the block.

Short term, The coronavirus situation in Europe seems far from under control and the European Council, they warned that the vaccination process “will take months”. Previously the German Chancellor Angela Merkel a d new traffic restrictions in areas with high contagion; he the number of non-cohabiting members in private meetings has dropped from six to only two; and also extended until January 31 other measures already in force such as the closure of schools and nurseries. Germany is one of the countries most affected by the second wave of the pandemic, with 1,787,410 cases (nearly 12,000 per day) and 35,518 deaths from Covid-19 (944 in the last 24 hours).

On the other hand, the The UK faces its third national lockdown today due to increased infections (60,916 new cases were detected on the last day) and the concern of new strain discovered in south-east England. Schools will be closed and the Prime Minister Boris Johnson He urged people not to leave their homes, except to buy gasoline, exercise and a few other activities. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak announced a new business subsidy package for 4.6 billion pounds ($ 6.2 billion) to help keep businesses and jobs going at least until mid-February, when the UK vaccination process is expected to go into effect and restrictions can be gradually lifted.

After a slow and bureaucratic start, the French government said it would speed up the vaccination process in the country. The aim is to broaden the universe of people to include more health workers and simplify vaccine administration procedures easily. In the first week, only 500 people were vaccinated and now the president Emmanuel Macron requested that the procedure be facilitated, while more departments come under curfew as cases increase.