World Bank says climate change can migrate 216 million people

Water scarcity, declining agricultural production and rising sea levels are the main causes leading to migration.

The adverse effects of climate change could force the migration of up to 216 million people by 2050, including 17 million in Latin America, the World Bank warned in a report on Monday.

Water scarcity, declining agricultural production and rising sea levels can cause the displacement of people as early as 2030, estimated the multilateral credit organization based in Washington, according to the AFP agency.

According to forecasts, by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa could have up to 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.

The data comes from the updated Groundswell report, first published in 2018, which then predicted 143 million climate migrants for sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America.

Now, three more regions have been added: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and the region comprising Eastern Europe and Central Asia to provide a “global estimate” of l he magnitude of the potential migration, said Juergen Voegele, vice president of sustainable development. from the World Bank.

But “this projection is not frozen,” said the official and explained that “If countries now start reducing greenhouse gases, closing development gaps, restoring vital ecosystems and by helping people adapt, internal climate migration could be reduced by up to 80%, to 44 million people by 2050. ”

However, he stressed that, without decisive action, there could be climate migration “hot spots” that “will emerge as early as the next decade and intensify by 2050, as people move out of places where they cannot. more live and move. areas that offer opportunities. “

This trend could have important implications for host countries, which are often unprepared to cope with these migratory flows.

“The trajectory of internal climate migration over the next half century depends on our collective action on climate change and development in the years to come,” Voegele noted.

“Not all migration can be avoided,” he said, but “if managed well, changes in the distribution of the population can be part of an effective survival strategy, allowing people to survive. out of poverty and build resilient livelihoods “.