World Tourism Organization projections for 2021

If 2020 has been a very difficult year for global tourism due to the coronavirus pandemic, in the first months of 2021 the travel industry has suffered further setbacks with countries that have once again tightened travel restrictions due to the Covid-19 outbreaks.

The perspective for the rest of the year, it remains uncertain, after a start with a sharp drop in the number of arrivals, according to the latest edition of the Barometer of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

Mandatory testing, quarantine and, in some cases, total closure of borders, hampered the resumption of international travel.

In Argentina, we saw a reduction in flights to some international destinations and, last week, the suspension of flight operations of Brazil, Chile and Mexico

In addition, the arrival of vaccines and its administration has been generally slower than expected, further delaying the restart of tourism.

The first data

The devastating impact of the pandemic on global tourism continues through 2021, with data showing a drop in January of 87% the number of international tourist arrivals compared to 2020.

Meanwhile, the UNWTO maintains its call for “a better coordination between countries with regard to travel protocols that allow a safe reactivation of tourism and avoid another year of losses for the sector “.

All regions of the world have been hit hard. Asia and the Pacific (-96%), the region that continues to have the highest level of restrictions, experienced the largest drop in international arrivals in January.

Europe and Africa both saw an 85% drop in arrivals, while the Middle East saw an 84% drop.

International arrivals to the Americas fell 77% in January, after slightly better results in the last quarter of 2020.

“The international community must take strong and urgent measures to ensure a more promising 2021. There are millions of people and businesses that depend on it, ”said UNWTO Secretary General Zurab Pololikashvili.

“Better coordination between countries and the harmonization of travel and health protocols are essential to restore confidence in tourism,” he added, with a view to the next one. been in the northern hemisphere.

Rebound possibilities

With a 32% of the total destinations in the world completely closed international tourists in early February, UNWTO expects the first months of 2021 to be difficult for global tourism.

Based on current trends, UNWTO predicts that international tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2021 will be 85% lower than in the same period of 2019.

That would mean a loss of around 260 million international arrivals from pre-pandemic levels.

Looking to the future, the UNWTO sketches two scenarios for 2021, which envisage a possible rebound in international travel in the second half of the year.

They are based on various factors, but above all on the lifting of restrictions, the success of vaccination programs and the establishment of harmonized protocols, such as the green digital certificate prepared by the European Commission.

The first scenario indicates a rebound in July, which would result in a 66% increase in international arrivals by 2021 from historic lows in 2020.

In this case, arrivals would still be 55% lower than those recorded in 2019.

The second scenario envisages a possible rebound in September, which would lead to a 22% increase in the number of arrivals compared to the previous year.

In this case, we would be faced with a figure 67% lower than in 2019.