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Since Ministry of Health The Chileans analyze three scenarios before a possible second wave of covid-19 infections in this country in January.
In the worst case estimate an average of 9,000 new infections per day 1,000 intensive care beds will be needed, which do not yet exist. This was revealed by the head of the Faculty of Medicine of Chile (Colmed), Izkia Sichez, who had access to official plans.
“We need to have a network prepared to be able to respond to different scenarios of increased demand. Especially with such tired health teams. But, at the same time, two areas need to be strengthened: the testing strategy, traceability and isolation, improve the indicators we currently have, but also strengthen risk communication, “Siches said during a dialogue. with the newspaper Mercury.
Scenarios
- The the first projection includes 3,026 new cases per day, which would translate into the occupation of 2,462 intensive care beds (at the height of the epidemic in Chile, there were 3,216 operational).
- the the second scenario estimates 6,600 new cases per day, and between 3,300 and 3,500 patients in intensive care units (ICU), which will exceed the capacity reached in the first wave and for which 300 additional beds would be necessary.
- the the third, more complex scenario provides 9,560 new cases per day, which means having at least 1,000 additional beds, which Health Minister Enrique Paris has called “a gigantic challenge”.
Chile reached its peak of 6,000 infections and 200 deaths per day between May and June, and the hospital system reached more than 90% of the bed occupancy rate in the metropolitan area.
Due to the high rate of infections in the southern regions of La Araucana, Los Lagos and Los Ros, the Minister of Health said today that he is not recommending tourism in any of them, although he does not exclude that this is possible later. Between the three regions mentioned accumulate more than 45,000 confirmed cases.
“Right now I’m not going south on vacation because the viral traffic is so high,” Paris said.
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