Arizona researchers call for 3-week shutdown, order to mask COVID-19 surge

PHOENIX (AP) – The current outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic will present Arizona with a hospital crisis that could turn into a disaster unless the state takes measures such as the three-week home closure order and the implementation of ‘statewide mask mandate, university researchers said.

Without such measures, “it would be like dealing with a major wildfire without an evacuation order,” members of the University of Arizona COVID modeling team said in a letter on Nov. 27. in the State Department of Health Services. The team has been following the outbreak since last spring.

Other measures recommended by the team include providing economic assistance to affected small businesses and families and preventing evictions and foreclosures.

READ THE LETTER HERE

Many local governments have imposed mask warrants since Governor Doug Ducey lifted a ban on such orders last summer. Local mandates cover around 90% of the state’s population, but enforcement is lax or non-existent in some places. A state-wide measure, the modeling team wrote, “ensures consistency and strengthens compliance.”

RELATED: Four Arizona mayors call on Governor Ducey for statewide mask mandate

Ducey at the start of the epidemic closed schools, many businesses and other establishments, but then relaxed restrictions, resulting in a surge of the virus that made Arizona a national hotspot last summer. He then reinstated some restrictions.

Now, as in many states, cases and hospitalizations in Arizona have increased again following the reopening of schools and businesses and public weariness with COVID-19 restrictions.

On November 19, researchers at Arizona State University projected that the state’s hospitals would exceed capacity unless action was taken.

Without again imposing new general mandates, Ducey has taken steps to help hospitals and has repeatedly urged Arizonans to wear masks and take other precautions against the spread of COVID-19.

State Senator Martin Quezada, D-Phoenix, endorsed the modeling team’s recommendations. “Heads of state must have political courage and protect public health by adopting them now,” he said on Twitter. “These are not unreasonable requests.”

Arizona Department of Health Services Response

The State Department of Health Services responded to FOX 10 about the letter on Saturday, saying:

“ADHS continues to review modeling predictions submitted by state universities. We are on high alert and closely monitoring real-time data on health care transmission and capacity, as well as patterns that have been shared.

The ministry also said mitigation measures had already been implemented, mentioning local mask warrants, bar closures, 50% capacity for restaurants and theaters, 25% capacity for gymnasiums, restaurants and theaters. warrants for masks in schools and the ban on major public events.

“We communicate regularly with hospitals, health care providers and our local health departments,” officials wrote in a statement. “ADHS continues to monitor this situation closely and to work with our hospital partners and may take additional measures as the situation evolves.

DHS director Dr Cara Christ said in a video Friday that Arizona was facing a significant spread and the holidays “had the potential to further increase the spread.”

“All the metrics continue to go in the wrong direction,” she said. “To put it simply, people let their guard down.”

Coronavirus in Arizona: Latest case numbers

On Saturday, the state reported 4,136 additional known cases of COVID-19 and 36 additional deaths, bringing the state’s total to 322,774 cases and 6,624 deaths.

COVID-19-related hospitalizations continue to rise, reaching 2,383 on Friday, including 553 patients in intensive care unit beds, according to the state’s dashboard.

The seven-day moving averages of new daily cases, daily deaths and COVID-19 test positivity in Arizona have all increased over the past two weeks, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project and Johns Hopkins University.

The daily average of new cases rose from 2,116 on November 13 to 3,849 on Friday, while the daily average of deaths increased from 21.1 to 23 and the average positivity rate fell from 14.7% to 19.3% .

The number of infections is believed to be much higher than what has been reported because many people have not been tested and studies suggest that people can get infected with the virus without feeling bad.

For most people, the new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, which go away within two to three weeks. For some – especially the elderly and people with existing health problems – it can cause more serious illnesses, including pneumonia and death.

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