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Apple is set to launch its next generation MacBook this week. For the first time since Steve Jobs’ surprise announcement in 2005 that Apple was switching from PowerPC to Intel (x86), the company is expected to take responsibility for manufacturing chips for the Mac.
With Apple AAPL,
With strong earnings that included better-than-expected growth for its Mac lineup, which grew 7.3%, more than double the 3.6% of the PC market, this seems like the perfect time for its new launch of Improved MacBooks.
However, I think the launch might test Apple, as it basically derives silicon for its newer Macs from the iPhone. Over time, that might turn out well, but there’s a good chance this show will have a rough start.
Apple has made plenty of statements about its new MacBooks, and while we’ll have to wait until Tuesday’s event to get the big picture, there have been plenty of leaks on what to expect from the company.
It’s the same normal old-news for Apple that CEO Tim Cook alluded to at this year’s WWDC event, including promises of a whole new level of performance, with power consumption. lowest, maximizing battery life to be better than ever. Also, a new level of graphics performance and even more market innovation.
In the WWDC transcript, Cook’s exact words were, “The Mac will take another big step forward.”
All of this will remain to be determined until further benchmarking and compatibility testing for software and peripherals becomes available.
Difficult transition
My biggest concern, however, is not the promises, but rather Apple’s potential vulnerabilities. The transition of Intel INTC,
to its new Arm-based silicon is almost certain to be a difficult transition that will impact both consumers and developers.
The entire enterprise software ecosystem will need to be rewritten to work on this new architecture, and that takes time. Microsoft MSFT,
for example, has been working for a decade to build its software ecosystem to run properly on Arm-based variants, both on its Surface Pro X, but also on other Arm laptops from Samsung and Lenovo. The improvement has been significant, but it has been very difficult to meet all the needs of developers and consumers.
Specifically, Intel’s transition to Apple’s new silicon will likely disrupt apps and create compatibility issues with devices. While I would expect Apple to have a set of “hero apps” that will work just fine, that certainly won’t be the case for all the apps, tools, and games used by Mac consumers.
Feedback from consumers, developers
This will leave consumers frustrated with their new Macs, perhaps more so than Mac’s constant quality issues with its keyboards over the past few generations. Plus, it creates more work for developers, who will now have to support disparate applications for the Intel version and the Arm version – anything but simple.
Perhaps Apple’s biggest mistake is its claim that this transition will be seamless. Sure, that’s good marketing, but the most realistic approach should be, “Be with us as we make the Mac experience even better.”
Another big question mark for Apple will be about support for its current generation of Mac Intel. The company has come under scrutiny for its short period of support for PowerPC after the switch to Mac. The support period only lasted three years, which left some Apple customers unhappy. Many Mac users stay with one device for five to eight years, and they certainly don’t want to be forced to purchase another device over $ 2,000 prematurely if Apple decides to stop supporting its Intel Macs after three years. It will be something to watch closely.
If Apple stumbles for a while as it seeks to perfect its new silicon, the next question is, where do consumers turn in the search for an alternative to the Mac?
Microsoft has everything to gain
I think Microsoft could be the big winner in this transition for the Mac. The Microsoft Surface saw its growth rates increase by 37% in its most recent quarter, surpassing $ 6 billion in its last four quarters. That number is still much smaller than that of Mac, which saw its Mac revenue hit $ 9 billion in its most recent quarter, reflecting its best quarter in history, with growth by 28% year over year. Still, I think there may have been some padding with buyers looking to upgrade before Apple moved away from Intel silicon.
Perhaps more than the growth momentum of Microsoft and Surface is perhaps the brand strength and ultra-premium branding that comes with Surface. I have long believed that Microsoft’s efforts on the surface had a lot less to do with competing with its big software makers like Dell DELL,
HP HPQ,
and Lenovo, and much more with the construction of a real competitor to the Mac.
This has been visible throughout Surface’s approach, including careful attention to detail such as packaging, branding on notebooks, building materials, and premium pricing. Microsoft has also been wise in its development of the Surface to include Intel, AMD AMD,
and Arm-based variants, giving customers choice while taking advantage of its ability to support nuances of software compatibility across all three chipsets.
Tuesday’s launch has a lot at stake for Apple. Apple’s move away from Intel has long been touted as a big deal for Intel, but it could be just as, if not more, of a problem for Apple. As Microsoft Surface continues to gain momentum for its super-high-quality laptops, Macs faces increased competition and will be under pressure to make it happen – sooner or later.
Daniel Newman is the principal analyst at Futurum Research, which provides or has provided research, analysis, advice and / or advice to Qualcomm, Nvidia, Intel, Microsoft, Samsung, ARM and dozens of companies in the technology and digital. Neither he nor his company hold any participation in the companies mentioned. Follow him on twitter @danielnewmanUV.
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