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The events in the Arabian Peninsula eclipsed the Israeli elections, supposedly the big story of the week.
The confrontation between Iran and its allies and Saudi Arabia and his allies is about to spill over into a declared war.
To attack the Saudi oil infrastructure is tantamount to attacking the heart of a living being – it's the source of its existence as a country. It is not yet clear whether the drones came from Houthi proxies from Iran to Yemen, from Iran itself or from Iraq. What is clear is that Iran is directly or indirectly responsible for the attack, which is a clear and blatant act of war.
Let's see the balance. Saudi Arabia has oil, money and an army of air and extremely well equipped armed forces. But it lacks leadership and willingness to fight effectively, as was amply demonstrated during the civil war in Yemen. The Saudis have regional allies in the Gulf, as well as in Jordan and Egypt.
Iran, on the other hand, suffers paralyzing sanctions imposed mainly by the United States. It has a powerful army, navy and air force, however divided into regular armed forces and Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, who hate each other cordially. It has its own regional allies in Lebanon and Syria, but mostly violent and important non-state allies, especially Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
Menacing gestures towards Israel emanate from these three terrorist organizations, financed and armed by Iran. Until now, the fear of massive Israeli retaliation has prevented these acts from turning into another sub-regional war between these groups and Israel.
Iran itself has taken manifestly illegal and potentially dangerous measures at the mouth of the Gulf, including the seizure of flag vessels from various countries.
All this and more has led to a toxic mix that has the potential to turn into armed conflict at any time.
Iran has just raised the explosive level of this regional devil brew. The two countries whose reaction will determine the outcome of this extremely dangerous action are Israel and the United States. Others, such as Turkey and Russia, will blow but eventually become observers, as the Gulf explodes or not.
The Saudis know that they are no match for Iran. They absolutely need the cooperation of the United States – Israel would also be of great help. The Iranians know perfectly well that they can not directly attack Israel. Israeli submarines equipped with missiles with nuclear missiles are permanently deployed in the Gulf or nearby and, with this option, Israel could attack and paralyze the Iranian nuclear infrastructure and other infrastructures that have developed. non-nuclear air equipment, as it was almost the case in 2012 before the call of the attack off because of the opposition of the Obama administration in Washington.
The immobilization of half of Saudi oil production is not a minor event. Retaliation will probably be just as serious, if not more so.
The preliminaries are over. The main event, it seems, is about to begin.
Unless, of course, the Trump administration does nothing significant in terms of retaliation. This would be a cosmic error, far more serious than the erasing of Obama's "red line" following Syria's use of toxic gas, which resulted in a significant reduction in US influence over Middle East.
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