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Malcolm Brogdon was a cheat code in the playoffs. The Bucks went from good to excellent on his return from a plantar fasciitis injury four games ago. Their net note with him on the ground (plus-24.8 in 105 minutes) does not even seem real. Milwaukee has yet another level to reach: he uses Brogdon as his sixth man since his return. Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer said he wanted to retain Brogdon in his role even after defeating Sunday's third game of the Eastern Conference, but bring him back into training starting point is his asset if the series gets closer. It would be even more important in a possible NBA finals match with Golden State. This could be the perfect showcase for Brogdon, who will be a restricted free agent this summer.
Brogdon, a second round pick in 2016, will be in line for a massive increase after playing on a minimum contract the last three seasons. He is one of the most complete guards in the NBA. It just took a new coaching staff in Milwaukee for people to realize. Like Khris Middleton, Brogdon was a victim of mismanagement of the previous regime. He was best known for his support for the 2016-2017 Rookie Award, beating Joel Embiid mainly because the great man often injured only appeared in 31 games. It was difficult for Brogdon to make a name last season: what could be a secondary option for a team that won 44 games and lost in the first round? As we have seen this season, the reality is that a team with enough talent to make Brogdon the fourth or fifth option should be one of the best in the NBA.
Brogdon has reached the Valhalla shooters this season: shoot at over 50% of the field, 40% of 3 and 90 from the free throw line. There have been only 14 seasons in the history of the NBA where a player has reached these benchmarks. Brogdon is the first since Steph Curry in 2015-16. And he's not just a shooting specialist, either. Brogdon has been an asset to college: he can handle the ball, shoot dribbling and make games in motion. There is no good option for the defense when he plays the ball. It can drain the 3 open or attack the close ups and create 3 open ones for someone else. He is a smart player, who seldom picks up speed or makes bad decisions, averaging 3.2 assists in just 1.4 turnovers per game this season.
A player who shoots and passes as well as Brogdon is a force multiplier. It can slip into almost any role in the offense. He was the fifth option of their starting lineup behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez in the regular season. There were many periods of games where he was the second option of the second unit. It can handle any amount of offensive liability between the two. One of the few times the Bucks have struggled this season is when Brogdon has thrown the anchor unanimously without any of his two stars. The numbers are striking: he scored a net mark of over-16.5 in 497 minutes with Giannis and without Middleton, and over-20.7 in 231 minutes with Middleton and without Giannis. Take them both out and his net score drops to plus-1.4 in 251 minutes.
Brogdon is so effective in the offensive that he would have value even though he was a minus on the other end of the mat. The fact that he is also a versatile defender of the size (6 feet 11 inches) to face players occupying multiple positions makes him one of the most valuable players in the league. He was their best defenseman against Kawhi Leonard in the last three games. It is impossible to overthrow a superstar such as Kawhi, but Brogdon at least forced him to work, placing him 9 times out of 22 in 77 possessions as the main defender. Brogdon has the strength and skill to be an excellent defender in position: he does not let Kawhi beat him or push him away. He arrested him in possession of consecutive property at the last minute of the first OT on Sunday.
The only hole in Brogdon's game is his lack of speed on the part of the elite. He does not have a big first step in attack and he may have trouble keeping smaller and faster players in front of him in defense. He was actually more successful on Kawhi in the series than Norman Powell, an ultra-athletic shooting guard who shot 3 out of 3 possessions out of 21 where Brogdon was his main defender. Brogdon began his career in the NBA as a playmaker and he's improved since he's been posted to the wing as a result of exchanges for Bledsoe and George Hill. He is at his best when he can attack a rotating defense that can not overload to stop him.
It's hard to know if Brogdon is 100%. He does not seem much slower since returning from injury, but he has never been faster. Budenholzer has increased his playing time in the last four games, from 17 minutes in the fifth game against the Celtics to 37 minutes in the double overtime defeat in the third game against the Raptors. He will have to rely even more on Brogdon. Putting him back in the starting lineup would give them another plan creator with struggling Middleton (averaging 10.7 points on 33.3% shooting and 2.7 assists per game in the series) and Giannis now mainly guarded by Kawhi. Exchanging Nikola Mirotic against Brogdon would also improve their defense. A legitimate two-player player like Brogdon is invaluable in the playoffs.
This ability would be crucial if the Bucks survive the Raptors and face the Warriors in the final. Golden State will be the first Milwaukee team to face the playoffs, allowing both the floor and the Bucks to spread. Toronto struggled to tackle the weak points in Milwaukee's defense because three-pointers are not consistent: Giannis plays Pascal Siakam and walks on the ground as a defender. Golden State will be able to disperse and attack in the space of slower men like Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova, which will force the Bucks to play smaller queues with more competent perimeter defenders. Brogdon would need to be averaging 35 to 40 minutes per game in the series.
The interesting part of this hypothetical series is that Milwaukee would be just as challenging for Golden State. The Bucks would be the first team of the Warriors of the time Durant to have enough wings in both directions to align with the formation of death: Bledsoe, Hill, Brogdon, Middleton and Giannis. Bledsoe is one of the closest players to the weakest link. He remains an elite defenseman with an average of 15.9 points on 48.4% of shots and 5.5 assists per game this season. The Bucks can switch screens between the five positions and attack Steph Curry in the gap with Giannis. The Warriors will always be the favorites, but their margin of error will be smaller than ever. The Bucks could be the best opponent of the warriors at the time of Kevin Durant.
Brogdon will have a lot to play in the coming weeks. It is not one of the stand-alone players in the stand-alone category this year, but it would be a big consolation prize for all teams with a cap. Three are distinguished: Utah, Dallas and Indiana. Brogdon could be a great side option behind Donovan Mitchell, Luka Doncic or Victor Oladipo. There are not many free agents who can create their own shot, launch the offensive, space the floor and defend several positions without disturbing the locker room. Brogdon is the kind of player that any coach would like: a 26-year-old man, wise and beyond his years, who founded an association that builds wells in East Africa and who is nicknamed "the president By his university teammates.
Brogdon is expected to secure a long-term contract of more than $ 15 million per season. The question for Milwaukee is whether they can give so much money to someone who plays such a small role in the offense. They do not need Brogdon in the regular season: they can hook a more limited shooter like Pat Connaughton and Sterling Brown and all is well. It only becomes crucial when they advance in the playoffs and the weaknesses of each player are amplified. There is no reason to let a player like Brogdon walk for anything, but keeping a legitimate contender for the championship together in the long run is also extremely expensive. Just ask Golden State and Cleveland, who have paid heavy fines for luxury in recent seasons.
The property group in Milwaukee will have to dip into their pockets this summer. Almost all the key players in their rotation will be free players: Middleton, Brogdon, Lopez, Mirotic and Hill. They granted Bledsoe a $ 70 million extension in March for a four-year term, which means keeping Middleton, Lopez and Brogdon will push them deeply into the luxury tax. Middleton will get a maximum contract from someone, while Lopez, who has a one-year contract and an amount of $ 3.4 million, is almost as underpaid as Brogdon. Hill ($ 19 million) and Mirotic ($ 12.5 million) are expected to experience sharp wage cuts to stay in all scenarios. This is where the award of big contracts to Bledsoe and Tony Snell (player option for $ 12.2 million in 2021-22) could haunt the Bucks. One thing that could help is to pack the draft choices to a team with limited space to spend one of these salaries. The Bucks have traded their first-round pick in 2020 against Bledsoe and their choice in 2022 against Hill, but they can still pick up some at no. 30 in total in this year's draft and then send that player to another team.
For Milwaukee to become the next Cleveland, there are more milestones than Giannis for the next LeBron James. Their owners, a group of hedge fund operators led by Marc Lasry and Wes Edens, also have to spend like Dan Gilbert. This will be their first big test since buying the franchise four seasons ago. They have opened a stadium funded by the state this season. Will they pay the price to put a competitor? The NBA has made every effort to give small-market franchisees the opportunity to compete with companies located in areas such as the Bay Area, but the owners of these markets must still be willing to spend. The Bucks window seems wide open at the moment, but it could close quickly. If they do not pay Brogdon, this season could be their best shot to win a Giannis era championship.
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