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Astros fans have gotten used to saying goodbye to some of their favorites when it comes time for the home side to fork out the cash it would take to keep them.
A year later, the hometown team had no chance of keeping Gerrit Cole when the Yankees lost $ 324 million in his lap.
Just under a year ago, Jim Crane and James Click barely looked like players in George Springer’s draw as he hopped on a plane to Toronto and $ 150 million.
Now Carlos Correa is ready for his well-deserved paycheck, and it’s going to hurt – either deep in the hearts of Astros fans or just in Crane’s bank account.
Francisco Lindor, a good friend of the Astros shortstop, signed a 10-year, $ 341 million contract with the Mets ahead of the season. Correa, who is almost a year younger than Lindor, has far surpassed the Mets shortstop, making the Astros’ initial offers to their superstar worrying.
Correa said he didn’t want to negotiate during the season, preferring instead to focus on winning another World Series, so the Astros slipped him two numbers on the table during spring practice. The first was a ridiculous amount of $ 120 million over six years. The next offer – five years, $ 125 million – was not much better.
“There’s no hard feelings,” Correa said after spring training. ” It’s a company. They told me very clearly. They said, “We don’t believe in long contracts. We don’t believe in big contracts. Once I get into free agency I’ll be looking for a big, long contract, and they’ve made it clear that they don’t believe it.
The Astros have one of the smartest front offices in baseball. As much as it hurt to lose Cole, they knew giving a 29-year-old pitcher a 10-year contract can come back to haunt the later years.
Maybe the scans say that giving Correa, who just turned 27 last month, a similar contract isn’t wise either.
This golden age of the franchise was elated because of its belief in cold, hard math, but now is the only time to let go of the numbers-for-all approach. However, we can look under the hood for some numbers, if you like.
Correa’s basics are good enough: an average of .276 to go along with career highs in circuits (25) and races (102), plus 91 RBIs, which is just five short of his career best with three games to go. .
Advanced stats are even better.
They show Correa is worth 7.0 wins over substitution (WAR) meaning her team have won seven more games this season than they would have if they replaced Correa with just one shortstop way. It should be noted that seven fewer wins this season would put the Astros out of the playoffs. Only Nationals outfielder Juan Soto (7.3) and Blue Jays second baseman Marcus Semien (7.1) have a higher WAR this season.
Then there is the defense. Correa is set to win the first Golden Glove of his career with advanced metrics showing he saved all 20 Astros races with his glove and one-arm cannon.
“It’s the Big Game Carlos for me,” Astros manager Dusty Baker said Thursday night. “You take his defense for granted. I just hope there’s a way to hold him back and sign Carlos because he’s a big part of this team, not just on the pitch, but he’s the one of the real leaders.
Baker and his players constantly bring up everything Correa does that doesn’t even show up in the most advanced stats. When the Astros took pictures of players across the league after their ways of stealing signs were exposed in a Major League Baseball investigation, it was he who stood in front of a camera and told the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger to “close the f- -k up.” When Framber Valdez appeared to lose his focus in Game 6 of the 2020 AHL Championship Series against the Rays, it was he who walked over to Yandy Diaz of Tampa Bay and told him to “calm down” , then dug his finger into Valdez’s chest and got him back on track.
“We’re where we are because of him,” Jose Altuve said clearly after the Astros’ division victory on Thursday night.
Still, any contract worth $ 300 million – only eight current big leagues live in this high-rent neighborhood, led by Mookie Betts’ 10-year, $ 365 million contract with the Dodgers – is a lot to consider. , especially when you have the biggest contract. the Astros have never given a player the $ 163.5 million seven-year extension granted to Altuve. This is without counting the big contracts inherited from the trades in the cases of Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke.
Their two contracts – Verlander has made $ 33 million this season and Greinke is withdrawing $ 32 million – are hitting the books next month when veteran pitchers hit free agency, appearing to release money that could keep your face off. franchise to reluctantly leave town.
Despite the resistance to offering long-term contracts, the Astros don’t come cheap. Their nearly $ 200 million payroll this season is behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets as the most expensive in all of baseball. Their payroll was also in the Top 5 last season.
The money is there, but even if it isn’t: be creative. We all love the train, but if someone wants him to fund part of Correa’s contract and put that train in his backyard, then make an offer (apologies to Bobby Dynamite). Mattress Mack loves the Astros. How much will he pay to replace the steam engine with a giant Gallery Furniture sofa bed above the Crawford Boxes? Gallery Furniture can save you money, but how much are you contributing to ensure Correa ends her career at Minute Maid Park?
Astros fans have understood the exits of previous stars. This one would hurt too much. Make sure this doesn’t happen. Whatever the cost.
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