[ad_1]
While President-elect Joe Biden’s immediate attention will likely be on the troubled domestic situation, with the Covid-19 pandemic and the political divide in the United States, the Trump administration has also chosen, as part of its final act , to present him with a series of new international diplomatic dilemmas. In some cases, these are life and death situations.
The measures, announced by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, mean Biden will begin his presidential term with several key foreign relations mired in controversy, thanks to policies set out by his predecessor.
“The Trump administration locks in place a series of conflicts that change the starting point of Biden’s assumption of office on the world stage,” said Raffaello Pantucci, senior researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore .
However, since Washington established formal diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979, it has resisted official diplomatic relations with Taipei in order to avoid a confrontation with Communist leaders on the mainland, which still sees the island – which is home to approximately 24 million people – – as part of China.
Critics fear that this week’s Trump administration decision will give Beijing the influence of the new Biden administration, even though strengthening US support for Taiwan against an increasingly assertive China has largely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington.
“If the United States decides to work with China on climate change, for example, China can demand that the United States reconsider its position on Taiwan,” Pantucci said.
And whether China sickles the United States like it or not, Biden may well have to work with China to tackle climate change, global terrorism, and all kinds of other issues.
Analysts had long expected Biden to maintain a hawkish stance on China, but believed he would work with international allies to build a cohesive coalition, rather than maintain Trump’s maximum pressure approach.
“What Biden should do is work with European allies to have a strategy aligned with China, but to do that you need time to build it,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, program director for the United States. and the Americas at Chatham House. “You don’t need more immediate problems to get in your way.”
Getting the partners – especially in Europe – to share a unified position on China was already a difficult task.
“European countries have very different attitudes towards China, some – like the UK – very worried and others – like Italy and Germany – more focused on China as a market export, “said Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK foreign affairs agency. Special business committee.
While it’s tempting to suggest that Biden might just reverse the policy once he takes office, it ignores the losing situation in which Trump left the president-elect.
As Pantucci points out, the surrender “would cost Biden political capital at home,” where anti-Chinese sentiment is quite strong in the political aisle. If Biden reimposed restrictions on contacts with Taiwan, that would also allow Beijing to claim that the United States had accepted its status as a province of China.
This “could have major implications in Taiwanese democracy itself, as Xi and his allies have not hesitated to assert their authority when given the space to do so,” Pantucci added. While China is “very unlikely to attack Taipei,” Pantucci warned there could be “more interference [by Beijing] in politics, to meddle economically “if Trump’s policies remain in place.
Bullying of the Houthis is ‘a fantasy’
The situation in Yemen is just as tense and, by the actions of the Trump administration, potentially more deadly.
The war in Yemen has dragged on since 2014. Diplomatic avenues to end the conflict between the Saudi-backed government and Iran-backed Houthi rebels have so far failed.
It has been described by UNICEF as “the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with more than 24 million people – around 80 percent of the population – in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 12 million children. “.
“Designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization will in no way help resolve this conflict and in fact risk prolonging it,” said Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding.
“There are risks that Houthi extremists will feel empowered to look more to Iran. They will not be willing to engage in diplomatic processes or hijackings to Saudi Arabia.”
The longer the crisis lasts, the worse things will get for those in need of humanitarian assistance, analysts said.
The terrorism designation will only make it more difficult for aid groups to deliver food and medical supplies to the country. It will also be “difficult for humanitarian organizations to have personnel on the ground, as the Houthis can control the two main points of entry into Yemen,” Doyle said.
“By choosing a side in a conflict, you can really harm civilian populations and that is very irresponsible,” Doyle added. “The idea that you can intimidate the Houthis into softening their position is a fantasy.”
Nail in the coffin for Obama’s Cuba policy
Pompeo’s re-designation of Cuba as the sponsor of state terror will likely have the least material impact, but it represents a personal loss for Biden and a significant political victory for Trumpism.
In doing so, Trump is driving the final nail into the coffin of Barack Obama’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba.
Stories have been and will continue to be written of how Trump’s hard line on Cuba’s communist leadership played well with the Latin vote in Florida. This last act could well leave a legacy to the one who will carry the Trump torch in 2024.
“If the United States now goes to Cuba and says it wants to go back to where it was at the end of the Obama administration, Cuba can legitimately wonder why that should bother when it is possible that someone like Trump can be elected again in 2024 “, says Pantucci.
And a reset, while not high on his priority list, could have been something Biden would consider, given he was Obama’s vice president.
Vinjamuri pays particular attention to the issue of inheritance.
“These are really the last days of the Trump administration and they really seem to be laying the groundwork for something they can build on,” she said, suggesting that Pompeo’s latest moves could be an attempt to perfecting his credentials for a 2024 presidential election race.
Biden will be sworn in on January 20. Trump will be gone – at least for now – but his impact on the world will be felt for years to come.
And it could take an entire term for the new administration to unravel the eleventh-hour decisions made by its predecessor.
[ad_2]
Source link