[ad_1]
By Lavina Lee
Update
July 24, 2018 15:03:02
US resident Donald Trump traded military threats and counter-threats with Iranian President Hbadan Rouhani in an alarming exchange similar to the war of words with Kim Jong-un. ;last year.
These threats of military force are strategic rather than mere random explosions by an unpredictable and thin president.
We have already seen Mr. Trump's game plan in his approach to Pyongyang: aim high, exert "maximum pressure" on your opponent. all the means necessary to extend the leverage points and force an agreement to the most favorable conditions in America.
The United States seeks to force Iran to resume negotiations
After the withdrawal of the United States from Iran
The Trump administration seeks denuclearization comprehensive, verifiable and complete Iran rather than the partial withdrawal and temporary freezing of the latter. The recent speech of the head of the Iranian Atomic Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, according to which Iran could bring uranium enrichment back to 20% in the space of four months , only underscores the poor agreement reached by Iran: It has not eliminated but simply delayed the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by Iran, in exchange for the Elimination of sanctions.
The second major objective of the maximum pressure campaign is to cut off Iran 's access to external sources of funding. Since the lifting of sanctions and the return of frozen funds, Iran has strengthened its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen Houthis, Iraqi Shiite militias and Syria. Bashar al-Assad, working directly against American interests and those of his allies in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel.
The United States will reinstate all sanctions withdrawn by Iran on November 4, including virtually all trade and investment of US companies with Iran and sanctions on Iranian exports that paralyzed the Iranian economy.
Threats of regime change worked on NK
The question then becomes whether this strategy will work. In the case of North Korea, the maximum pressure campaign forced Pyongyang to reconsider the costs and benefits of continuing to develop a credible nuclear deterrent.
Trump's war threats, though seemingly implausible, have introduced an element of risk that the United States would force regime change, which the North Korean nuclear program seeks to avoid.
China was finally persuaded to accept and impose unprecedented sanctions on the regime to avoid the real prospect of war on the peninsula. refugees, the collapse of the North Korean state and the reunification of the two Koreas to adverse conditions without direct military intervention.
Trump should be credited with bringing North Korea to the Singapore Summit, but his reputation as a "deal-maker" was severely dented by unconvincing results.
The summit was a public relations stunt for Kim Jong-un, raising him on the world stage, in exchange for the promise of "denuclearization" in an indefinite time without reference.
Trump's post-summit press conference also undermined the credibility of his previous threats of using military force against the regime, with his complaints about the costs of defending his southern ally -Korean, and recognition of the great loss of life that would occur, while suggesting that such threats were simply bluffing.
Trump may bluff, but Iran does not have nuclear weapons
In the case of Iran, Tehran could to believe that Mr. Trump is bluffing too. However, the crucial difference is that Iran has not yet developed a nuclear weapon.
In a conventional war, the United States and its allies would have the decisive advantage. Even so, the reinstatement of economic sanctions against Iran, especially the oil sanctions, is enough to make the mullahs think. After all, between 2012 and 2016, a period of strong international oil and financial sanctions, Iran's GDP growth has consistently fallen into negative territory, including -6.6 percent in 2012 and -5.6 percent. in January 2016.
Many will argue that EU's continued support for the deal with Iran and the refusal to reinstate sanctions against Iran will mean that the return to an old strategy will not work this time. The EU is trying to save the deal by proposing a set of economic measures to entice Iran to stick to it in May.
Iran believes, however, that the package is inadequate.
The EU is also talking hard and has started the process of activating a "blocking law" that prohibits EU companies and courts from enforcing US sanctions .
These measures, however, should not have any effect on the US The US has already refused to give a waiver to US sanctions to EU companies that make transactions with the United States. Iran
. , showing a determination to support the discontent of its allies, which was emphasized at the recent NATO summit In reality, the Iranian agreement can not be saved.
Iran is still under the green revolution & # 39;
Iranian leaders have already faced the most serious public protests since the "green revolution" in 2009. End of December 2017 and early January 2018 Demonstrations broke out in more than 100 Iranian cities in response to the increase unemployment and inflation, the collapse of the currency against the US dollar and a general economic slowdown. The return of the US sanctions campaign will severely aggravate these economic difficulties and fuel other internal troubles.
In summary, the "maximum pressure" campaign will probably bring Tehran back to the table, but in a very weak position. 19659006] The United States was in this position before in 2015, with the Obama administration wasting its influence and accepting a sub-optimal nuclear deal
Hopefully Mr. Trump learned from the Singapore summit, and did not will not play his hand
Dr. Lavina Lee is a senior lecturer in international relations at Macquarie University.
Topics:
unrest-conflict-and-war
world politics,
donald-trump,
United States,
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Published
July 24, 2018 14:53:03
Source link
