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The real estate slowdown in Australia is gaining momentum
House prices have fallen for a tenth consecutive month in July, according to figures released by CoreLogic on Wednesday, with a monthly drop of 0.6%. percent – the highest rate since August 2012.
House prices are now 1.9% lower than their peak of September 2017, but are still 31% higher than those of the previous year. five years. CoreLogic said the weakness was due to long-lasting declines in Perth and Darwin and an acceleration of the rate of decline in Sydney and Melbourne
"We do not see any factors likely to halt or decay. The reverse of the subtle trajectory of the housing market is diminishing in the second half of 2018, "said Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic." The availability of housing credit has been a major contributor to this slowdown. but there are a variety of obstacles that contribute to slower conditions. "
Five of the eight capitals have seen median declines in house prices over the past three months. $ 863,769, Melbourne fell 1.8% to $ 709,568, Perth fell 1.5% to $ 457,274, Darwin 1% to $ 439,596 and Canberra's 0.2% to $ 590,229 Hobart was the best performing city with a 1.1% increase to $ 435,833. Ane was up 0.5 percent to $ 494,634 and Adelaide rose 0.7 percent to $ 438,163. [19659003] M. Lawless said the biggest declines occurred in the high end of the market.
"The highest annual performance differential is in Melbourne, the top quartile has seen its values fall by 4.1% in the last 12 months, while the bottom quartile property values have increased 7.5 Similarly, in Sydney, housing values are down 8%, the most expensive quarter of the market, while the most affordable quarter of the market saw the values fall sharply. a much lower 1.8% in the last 12 months. "
Other capitals recorded significantly less variation across valuation segments, CoreLogic attributed this increase to higher demand from first-time homebuyers at the lower end of the market, after stamp duty concessions in NSW and Victoria last July.
At the same time, a new emphasis on borrowers A high debt ratio would likely reduce the amount of funds available for the purchase of expensive housing. The price / income ratio of homes was 9.1 in Sydney and 8.1 in Melbourne at the end of June.
"While mitigation factors are at stake, still low mortgage rates will continue to provide a buffer of support that should" Homeowners continue to enjoy the lowest mortgage rates since the 1960s and although investors pay a premium of about 60 basis points on their home loans, interest rates remain low, "he adds. raise mortgage rates, they should increase more than 150 basis points to return to the 20-year average of 6.8%, said Mr. Lawless.
It comes after a number of Major banks have downgraded their forecasts for the Australian housing market.The NAB predicts that real estate prices will stabilize in 2020, with a 6.5% drop in Sydney and a 2.5% drop in Melbourne. 19659003] ANZ stated that he was waiting for to declines of 10% to 10%. both Sydney and Melbourne in the same period. AMP Capital's chief economist, Shane Oliver, estimates that Sydney and Melbourne will see drops of 15% while the national average will fall by 5%.
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