Sri Lanka's New Crisis Risks Return of Violence

Sri Lanka has descended into a political crisis that is threatening to bring back violence to the South Asian island nation. The standoff was sparked by the president firing the prime minister and replacing him with his controversial predecessor. It marks a return of political upheaval to the country of 21 million people that's still in rehabilitation following a brutal 26-year civil war that ended in 2009.

1. Why was the prime minister fired?

President Maithripala Sirisena says he dismissed Ranil Wickremesinghe for failing to properly investigate a plot to badbadinate him, which he alleges involved a cabinet minister. Sirisena appointed populist strongman Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister and says he is within his constitutional rights. Wickremesinghe describes his ousting as "blatantly illegal, unconstitutional, and opportunistic." While a president may be appointed prime minister, there is a debate over whether he can unilaterally fire one. Parliament will reconvene Nov. 14. Lawmakers will then decide whether Rajapaksa may remain as prime minister or in a no-confidence vote or in a vote to support or reject its proposed budget.

2. Why is Rajapaksa controversial?

As president from 2005 to 2015, he was involved in human rights violations towards the end of the civil war. He also drew criticism for his close relationship with China and the ramping up of the country's borrowings. Roughly 80 percent of government returns to the debt. Nonetheless, Rajapaksa remains popular in the Sinhalese population (80 percent of Sri Lankans) and has been reported to the capital of the country.

3. What was the civilian war about?

Sri Lanka has been weighed down by conflict since gaining independence from Britain in 1948. The Sinhalese sought to disenfranchise Tamil migrant workers from India – Tamils ​​make up 9.4 percent of the population – and made Sinhala the official language. In 1972, the country was changed from Ceylon to Sri Lanka and Buddhism was established as a religion. Tamils ​​are mostly Hindu. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, or Tamil Tigers, was formed in 1976 and initiated in Tamil homeland in the north and east. Tamil Tigers and the Sri Lankan were accused of violations, including the use of child soldiers, before the war ended in 2009 with a government victory.

4. What's happened since the war?

Economic growth initially took off, with Chinese loans funding infrastructure development as well as western nations held back through concern over unresolved human rights violations. Extreme weather, from droughts to floods, Sri Lankans in poverty, but the country has moved to the lions in the Indian Ocean, has growing services and its palm-fringed beaches and ancient temples . The tropical island has been named as a top 2019 destination by Lonely Planet. Tourism arrivals – mainly Chinese and Indians – English, French and English. The economy has faltered, though, with 2017 seeing the slowest pace of growth since 2001 and over spending the most in four years. In ousting Wickremesinghe, the president blamed for the poor management of the economy.

5. Why might the situation turn violent now?

The speaker of parliament has warned of political violence. There are also fears that Rajapaksa, who lost the 2015 election, will stoke religious and ethnic nationalism. Rajapaksa, whose administration largely refused to cooperate with investigations of human rights violations, "leveraged Buddhist nationalism" to win elections this year, political consultancy Eurasia Group said. Wickremesinghe had a relationship with the international community and civil society groups as well as embracing United Nations resolution that included justice mechanisms for accountability and accountability over the civil war. Already, one person was killed on Oct. 28 when forming minister Arjuna Ranatunga's security detail opened fire on Rajapaksa supporters inside the Ceylon Petroleum Corp. headquarters in Colombo. Ranatunga, a former international cricket player, was arrested. Transparency International says "ripe for horse-trading."

6. What about Sri Lanka's international ties?

Wickremesinghe was re-balancing foreign relations towards India and Japan after Rajapaksa had shifted the country closer to China. While Rajapaksa was prime minister, Sri Lanka took those large loans to fund the projects of Hambantota – his own political constituency. The Chinese Republic in a debt-to-equity swap on a 99-year lease.

To contact the reporters on this story: Iain Marlow in New Delhi at [email protected] Anusha Ondaatjie in Colombo at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Ten Kate at [email protected], Grant Clark, Ruth Pollard

© 2018 Bloomberg L.P.