Allies wonder if NATO will survive Trump

A few days later, he sat down with Russian President Vladimir Putin for their first one-on-one summit. European leaders worried that Trump could negotiate their security in the name of better relations with the Kremlin

European Council President Donald Tusk warned European leaders last month that the allies could no longer badume responsibility # 39; NATO. NATO diplomats joke that Trump and Putin may unveil a global alliance that contributed to the First World War. Others contemplate the legal architecture of a NATO in which the United States is no longer the dominant actor. 19659003] US President Donald Trump briefly meets Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Hamburg last year "srcset =" https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.284%2C$ multiply_0.7252124645892352% 2C $ ratio_1.776846% 2C $ width_1059% 2C $ x_0% 2C $ y_0 / t_crop_custom / t_sharpen% 2Cq_auto% 2Cf_auto / a6fa35c6c9a020366d1dec65b1e0ed1ee26a807d "itemprop =" image "/>

"The greatest of allies not only disagrees with us, but he seems to want to leave," said Tomas Valasek, a former NATO ambbadador to NATO, who heads Carnegie Europe in Brussels, a think tank "Deterrence has already been broken."

These feelings are based on the words and Trump shares in recent weeks because it has We fully adopted our own foreign policy instincts after a first year of restraint by more conventional conventions. aid. Few people think that Trump would withdraw from NATO – at least they think it would be restricted by Republican partners in Congress. Europeans fear a repeat of last month's Group of Seven summit in Canada, when Trump defeated leaders of Washington's closest allies and withdrew his signature from the bromide-filled declaration that comes [19659002] Chargement en cours

Only this time, there could be immediate security implications.

"It's one thing he's going to the G7 and is rude to people," said a top NATO diplomat. "It's another thing to derail NATO."

Europeans are "afraid" that Trump could trigger a crisis, said another top European official, adding a disapproving word.

Trump has already said that he was looking for "I will tell NATO that you have to start paying your bills, the United States is not going to take care of everything," he said. Trump at a heated rally in Montana last week. "Last month he sent letters to leaders whose countries are not honoring their promises of NATO defense spending, warning that the United States could cut them off if they do not do it. to pay more money into their armed forces.He is questioning why the United States should face a trade deficit with the countries they are spending to protect, suggesting that he could use security guarantees as trading currency in trade talks.

Europeans say that angry rhetoric is already detrimental to the security of the alliance, since that part of Russia and other potential adversaries leave no doubt if only one member is attacked, all countries will come to his aid.

But leaders and diplomats worry that Trump may soon go further to undermine the alliance. They fear that it may stop US involvement in military exercises in Eastern Europe to avoid "provoking" Russia, since it has made a similar concession on joint exercises with Korea. South after meeting Kim Jong-un. They fear that it may attract the US military presence in Europe, a move that could pierce the US security umbrella that reaches the Russian border.

Their nightmare is that Trump could kiss Putin at their summit by recognizing the annexation of Russia. Crimea, emboldening nations around the world to redraw borders by force.

"It's such a fundamental question," said a top NATO diplomat. "This could legitimize a whole series of actions: if you have the power, raw conventional military power, you can do what you want."

"I am depressed," added the diplomat. "The fact that we even think about it."

US diplomats negotiating the content of the agreements before the summit say they have not received any instructions that would emerge from decades of US foreign policy. On paper, at least, Trump should condemn Russia's behavior in Ukraine, endorse collective defense and sign a series of new plans that would expand US military activity in Europe, not diminish it [19659023]. and a pivotal summit, "US ambbadador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison told reporters last week. "NATO does a lot of things that the president has asked them to do."

But Trump himself seems to want to take a different direction. At the G7 summit last month, he suggested that the 2014 annexation was legitimate because most residents of the Crimean peninsula were Russian-speakers. According to a person who was in the room at that time, the leaders retreated but did not feel that they had progressed.

The recognition of Crimea would undermine the foundations of Western action against the Kremlin since 2014, including sanctions. the reinforcement of NATO along the Russian border. This would violate US commitments to Ukraine, since Kiev received guarantees in 1994 that Washington would protect its territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine abandoning nuclear stockpiles of the Soviet era. .

It would be a moral blow to NATO. Donald Trump jokes with British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson as British Prime Minister Theresa May during a working dinner at NATO HQ in May 2017. "srcset =" https: // static .ffx.io / images / $ zoom_0.23% 2C $ multiply_0.7252124645892352% 2C $ ratio_1.776846% 2C $ width_1059% 2C $ x_0% 2C $ y_98 / t_crop_custom / t_sharpen% 2Cq_auto% 2Cf_auto / e457bc660a3f662ae9d3fab472874afd45d5b60f "itemprop =" image "/>

Concerns over Trump and the reliability of the US security umbrella sparked a series of discussions among European leaders on how to respond.The European Union has strengthened its own security cooperation, creating a retreat embryonic in case of failure of the NATO, for example, and even if Trump retains his signature of the final declaration of the NATO summit – an unprecedented decision for a US leader – diplomats who have thought about the possibility think that many of his initiatives the most important ones would go forward since they have already been approved by the defense ministers.

Despite fears about the future of NATO, most countries are still spending too little on defense to be self-sufficient if they were deprived of US protection. The biggest culprit is Germany, the richest nation in Europe and Trump's favorite target for anger. Although Chancellor Angela Merkel has pledged to spend more on defense, the effort remains unpopular among German voters. The current plans would only bring her up to three-quarters of the commitments she made to NATO leaders by 2024. German soldiers had to use broomsticks for s & # 39; result because they do not have enough firearms

. At first, many leaders hoped to get a single Trump mandate, but they fear he could be re-elected, giving him enough time for many of his policy changes to be permanent.

"It really looks like we are on the We are not yet ready for this in the EU," said the policy officer

The speech of a cracking of the NATO is so bad that even the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, who has generally tried "It is not written in stone that the transatlantic link will survive forever, but I believe we will preserve it "said Mr Stoltenberg. "The lesson of history is that we have been able to overcome our differences."

Some diplomats say they are surprised by the gap between Trump's anger and the opportunity of an easy political victory at the NATO summit. The other NATO leaders, frightened by Trump, are expected to increase defense spending by 3.8% this year, extending a trend begun by President Barack Obama. When Trump took office, only four NATO countries complied with the guidelines to spend at least 2% of their annual defense economic output. This year, eight are on the right track, and seven more are expected to be by 2024. Prior to the summit, NATO nations also adhered to US priorities in the area of ​​security. antiterrorist and military security.

has injected money into US military activity in Europe, asking for $ 6.5 billion for the 2019 budget, nearly double the last year of Mandate of Obama

"The only thing that will weaken the message," said a top NATO diplomat. "If one wonders why the United States should be in NATO."

Even in the absence of a true withdrawal, the spirit of the alliance is at stake, many say here.

"If it's really a trade threat, that can destroy NATO's base," said Stefano Stefanini, a former NATO ambbadador to NATO and consultant safe in Brussels. "The basis of NATO is that security across the Atlantic is a common good."

Washington Post