Coal energy is endangered as soon as possible, according to AEMO

Australia's latest energy market operator confirmed in a keynote speech the main badumptions used to develop AEMO's integrated system plan.

Audrey Zibelman, of AEMO, presented a fascinating presentation on the complex modeling behind the ISP on Wednesday in Melbourne, which – published last June – is by far the best plan the industry has developed to guide Transition of the Internet. National Electricity Market in Australia.

According to Zibelman, one of AEMO's key objectives was to address the "asymmetry of information" that previously prevented gradual change to the NEM through "a very open and transparent process".

As she said, there are certain things that AEMO would say: "It is absolutely necessary that everything be done, whatever the circumstances – in other words, with the least regrets".

At the top of this list is the replacement of the outgoing Liddell coal-fired power plant in New South Wales, and the introduction of the new renewable energy capacity that is already replacing it, by reinforcing the transportation networks and by storing it.

"We call these our group one. These are the projects we will really need. For example, we know that, as the AGL told us, Liddell is about to retire, AEMO has reviewed the situation. We must therefore allocate new resources to NSW.

"It must be done, not just in time … but in advance, so that we can do it and make sure that when this plant stops working, we will be able to meet those needs, which will will also help to integrate renewable energies.

"You can somehow wish things are not going well, but frankly, they are," added Zibelman.

"So in the case of the electricity system, when the plants are going to retire, I mean we're talking a lot about coal that's going to retire at the end of its useful life, so we need to replace them.

"So there will be an investment cost … depending on what's going on, between $ 8 billion and $ 27 billion, which seems a lot, but it really depends on the choices that will be made."

And that is what ISP is, she said, a plan to guide the best and cheapest way, using all available information and resources.

Zibelman explained that the second phase of the ISP is what AEMO calls Group 2 projects – and that too is focused on the potentially rapid removal of coal.

"On this point, we are doing extra work, because for us, these projects fall into … the bucket of what we will need to be before the next stage of decommissioning coal-fired power plants.

"One of our concerns here, and one that we are going to work with BSE, is that we have looked at the coal-mining issue in terms of what we would call a technically logical moment, but there is always a risk that something will happen. happen and that they will retire earlier and we will need to have projects in place.

"Once again, you do not want to wait until the last minute and go into crisis mode, you want to be able to plan this," she said.

"So we're going to work with people to tell them: what will happen if coal comes off earlier, what should we put in place to make sure the system is reliable and the BSE works with us? on this subject?".

"By implementing such a plan, we will be able to be the most efficient in terms of basic costs," added Zibelman.

And as noted by Stephen Davy of Tasmanian Hydro, Australian coal plants could retire early for a number of reasons, but economic factors are by far the most important factor and they are changing very rapidly.

"The first version of the ISP indicated that Australia would need 17 GW of storage in the system by 2040, baduming that much of the coal plant will continue to operate until the end of its life. identified life or up to age 50, whichever suits best, "Davy told the CEDA lunch.

"And what that means is what could happen if the coal plant closes earlier – not necessarily because it did not work properly, but more because the economic factors behind their lives are very eroded, new renewable energy has been faster – this target … could happen to us very, very quickly. "

Davy also said that he believed that Australia was in good hands to meet the enormous challenges ahead.

"We are very lucky in Australia to be able to count on someone of Audrey 's caliber and energy," he said. "It's a very serious role, we're in transition."