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ISTANBUL, Nov. 3 (Xinhua) – While Turkey promises to crush the US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia along its border, badysts remain skeptical that Ankara will launch a total offensive. to eliminate the fighters, which would also mean confrontation with Washington.
"I do not think it's very likely that Turkey will start an offensive against the Kurdish militia," Yasar Yakis, former foreign minister of Turkey, told Xinhua. He noted that the United States had said that it would protect the militia if it was attacked.
THE UNITED STATES BIGLY AFFECTED
Ankara views the Kurdish militia, known as the People's Protection Units (YPG), as a terrorist organization posing a major threat to national security.
On Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again expressed Ankara's determination to eliminate Kurdish fighters, stating: "We will soon crush the terrorist organization into more extensive operations and more effective. "
The president also said that preparations for such a military operation were already complete.
The Turkish army has twice bombed several positions of YPG forces near the border over the past week, leaving some Kurdish fighters dead or wounded, according to local media reports.
The United States has expressed concern over Turkey's strikes, saying that "unilateral military strikes … by all parties, especially if US personnel are present or nearby, are of great concern to us".
Washington is in contact with Ankara and the YPG to defuse the situation, a spokesman for the US State Department said on Wednesday.
"A large-scale military operation on the Kurdish militia does not seem possible in the near future in the current circumstances," said Xinhua Cahit Armagan Dilek, head of Turkey's 21st Century Institute based in Ankara.
Ankara is already part of a fragile Idlib deal, wrestling with foreign policy issues and a fragile economy, said Dilek, a former Turkish army staff officer.
On the basis of an agreement with Russia, Turkey has set up 12 military observation posts in the Syrian province of Idlib.
Ankara is now tasked with convincing some radical rebels who are reluctant to withdraw from some territories and leave their heavy weapons behind to reach a political settlement.
Referring to statements by US officials that Washington saw YPG-controlled territory as an area under his hegemony, Dilek said that "a Turkish military operation would involve a war against the United States."
The United States would have more than 20 military bases and several thousand soldiers in YPG-controlled territory east of the Euphrates in northeastern Syria.
Turkey should conduct surgical strikes against the YPG without wasting time instead of preparing for a large ground operation, Dilek said.
"INCALCULABLE CONSEQUENCES"
Despite Erdogan's threat, Dilek believes that Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that Turkey would continue to cooperate reluctantly with the United States, as was the case in Manbij, in the United States. West of the Euphrates, held by the YPG.
In a speech on the same day after Erdogan's threat of military intervention, Akar said work on the YPG zone in the eastern part of the Euphrates would begin once the Manbij deal with the United States would progress.
Ankara and Washington agreed in June on a roadmap for the withdrawal of YPG from Manbij, which is expected to start in early July and end by December.
However, the Kurdish militia still retains control of the city with US troops, without giving any sign of exit so far.
Despite Turkey's strong criticism, Washington has provided a huge amount of weapons to the Kurdish militia in recent years.
The YPG, after being equipped and trained militarily by the United States, could face tougher resistance against a military operation, warned Yakis.
The United States has used the YPG, which currently has between 60,000 and 70,000 armed members, as the ground force against the Islamic State in Syria.
Earlier this year, the Turkish army, backed by rebels of the Free Syrian Army, chased the YPGs from the Afrin region, in northwestern Syria, in about two month.
Kurdish fighters of Afrin, where there were no American troops, were not supported militarily by the United States during the Turkish offensive.
A confrontation with US troops poses a significant risk and could have "incalculable consequences," warned Yakis.
Yakis and Dilek both believe that a military operation against the YPG would have been much simpler and less expensive a few years ago, when the United States would not have helped much.
According to local media, the US military has set up radar and air defense systems in areas controlled by the YPG in August.
According to Dilek, Turkey should have targeted the east of the Euphrates before going against Afrin, the former constituting the backbone of the militia.
Thanks to US military support, the YPG created two self-declared autonomous cantons during the Syrian war in the eastern part of the Euphrates along the Turkish border.
Turkey fears that an autonomous Kurdish entity in Syria is showing the example to its own Kurdish population.
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