The bad things that worry sharing sites begin to happen

"The market is the wisdom of all investors – it has dismissed this kind of news feed with the brutal and violent sale we had in December," said Alec Young, general manager of global market research at FTSE. Russell. telephone interview.

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"When there is a big upward or downward movement, it tells you positive or negative things about future developments.The extreme downward movement told you that we would have this type of news feed."

All the bad news put an end to what had been the best stock market performance in five days since 2011, a rise in the S & P 500 which reached 7.2% at Wednesday's high. It is the worry that has left stocks at the edge of a bear market on Christmas Eve.

While real-time irritants abounded to explain the fourth-quarter plummet – tariff wars, the Federal Reserve, outrageous valuations – many bulls expressed their perplexity about the speed of the fall given by growth estimates. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2019 and badysts expect business profits, though outside this year's frenetic pace, to increase by 8%. , 3%.

"The market allows for the recession, no matter the problem – the market has it integrated," said Jeff Carbone, managing partner of Cornerstone Wealth. "Now, how far and when? This story has not been written yet."

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For the first time under the chairmanship of Donald Trump, badysts' forecasts are both economic statistics and indicators of confidence. Hard data includes government and private sector data on consumer spending, jobs, manufacturing and housing, while statistical statistics are based on Fed factory surveys and consumer confidence surveys. consumers.

Anything suggesting cracks in profits and the macroeconomic base would deteriorate badly on Wall Street. That was what was happening on Thursday, as Apple's outlook clouded profit forecasts for all suppliers, from semiconductor suppliers to electronics retailers, and the Institute for Supply Management index was lacking speculation about the fact that the economy was not doing as well as expected.

For investors trying to read tea leaves, two risks exist. First, the market has seen something that professional forecasters have not seen. And secondly, the accumulated losses on the financial markets become a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy, which tarnishes feelings and harms the confidence of consumers and businesses.

"It's the psychology of the market, it's now that growth is slowing down and feeding almost on its own," said Laurence Benedict, founder of Opportunistic Trader, in a phone interview. "Companies do not want to spend because we are in danger of going into a recession, and this perception generally leads to reality."

Bloomberg