What Trump must win (and lose) in his meeting with Putin



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After a tense summit with NATO members in Brussels, President Donald Trump is considering confronting NATO's main defense target: Russian President Vladimir Putin

Charge of 12 Russian officials for alleged interference in the 2016 elections through targeted hacking into the computers of state election officials as well as those badociated with democratic organizations, including the Democratic National Committee and the campaign Hillary Clinton. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein told reporters Friday that he had found no evidence that piracy had altered the outcome of the election.

Electoral interference is one of the topics that Trump is committed to addressing during the meeting. the location of the Finnish presidential palace in Helsinki. The event will be structured in the same way as the president's summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a month ago. Mr. Trump will speak with Putin one-on-one, followed by an expanded meeting with advisors and additional staff. The two will then sit down for lunch, and Trump will return to the US late in the afternoon.

But "a presidential summit is usually the synthesis meeting to confirm a set of pre-negotiated deliverables". with Trump's meeting with Putin, said Alina Polyakova, a member of the Brookings Institution. It is important to maintain the dialogue between the United States and Russia at all levels, she said, "the Trump administration overthrew this protocol and did everything in reverse."

This type of strategy brings some benefits but also the officials said. Here is what we know about the meeting between Trump and Putin and what each party must win or lose.

What are the goals of Trump?

U.S. Ambbadador to Russia Jon Huntsman told reporters before the trip that "the president hopes that a meeting can help reduce tensions and lead to constructive engagement that enhances peace and security in the world." Because you can not solve problems if you do not talk about it. "

At a press conference on Friday in the United Kingdom, where Trump met with Prime Minister Theresa May and Queen D & R England, the president said that he was going to "absolutely" evoke Russian interference in the 2016 elections. "I hope we will have a very good relationship with Russia", was -he says.

Trump believes that there is a better relationship with Russia would be good for America and Russia, Huntsman said. "But the ball is really in the Russian camp, and the president will continue to hold Russia accountable for its malicious activities.We are going in with our eyes wide open, but peace is always worth the effort." [19659002LeaderscbadsodiscussarmscontrolincludingthepossibilityofextendingthenewSTARTtreatybyfiveyearswhichlimitsthenuclearweaponsofbothcountriessaidaseniorofficialoftheadministrationtoreportersbeforethetripAnotherurgentarmscontrolissue:Washington'saccusationsthatRussiaviolatedtheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForces(orINF)Treatylastyearbydeployingamid-rangemissilethatcanrangefrom500at5500kmRussiahbadaidthatitsmissiledoesnotgothatfar

They can discuss these treaties because "both parties want to avoid accidents or mistakes that could lead to military clashes," said William Taylor, US ambbadador to Ukraine. Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General of the United States, announces the indictment by a grand jury of 12 Russian intelligence officers in the Russian investigation of Robert Mueller, at a press conference at the Ministry of Justice in Washington, USA, July 13, 2018. REUTERS / Leah Millis "width =" 1024 "height =" 699 "clbad =" size-large wp-image-257703 "srcset =" https: // d3i6fh83elv35t. cloudfront.net/static/2018/07/rosenstein-1024×699.jpg 1024w, https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2018/07/rosenstein-300×205.jpg 300w, https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/ static / 2018/07 / rosenstein-768×524.jpg 768w, https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2018/07/rosenstein-425×290.jpg 425w, https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2018/ 07 / rosenstein-1200×819.jpg 1200w "sizes =" (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px "/>

US Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein announces the indictment by a grand jury of 12 intelligence officers russian years of the Russian investigation of Robert Mueller, at a press conference at the Department of Justice in Washington, United States. July 13, 2018. REUTERS / Leah Millis

During a recent visit to Moscow, a group of US senators raised the issue of ction interference. This is what other US officials have also done on several occasions, said a senior administration official. But will Trump do the same?

Trump "knows the facts and the details", and he will talk about it in his own way, according to the manager.

The United States imposed sanctions against 19 Russians for electoral interference and cyberattacks. Russians for allegedly hacking the computers of democratic organizations and election officials and released these documents online.

The United States also deported 60 Russian diplomats early in the year, an action that was also taken by 20 other countries after accusing Russia of poisoning an ex-spy in Great Britain. Britain. (The Kremlin denied these accusations).

Meanwhile, investigations into the Russian meddling in the 2016 election and possible links with Trump's presidential campaign are continuing. The House on Thursday pbaded a bill on intelligence financing that would require agencies to inform congressional leaders if they suspect foreign interference in elections. The Senate has not yet approved its version of the bill.

Following Friday's indictments, at least three Democratic senators – Chuck Schumer, Jack Reed and Mark Warner – called on Trump to cancel the meeting "until Russia proves" the president of the senatorial minority, Schumer said in a statement.

Polyakova said that the president raised the electoral interference before "and seems to believe Putin's denials.If this happens, it will probably be in pbading." The same will apply to the attack of the British neurotoxic agents and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, which led to US and European sanctions against Russia, she said. "Trump will probably want to focus on what he sees as a positive program rather than criticism of Russian behavior."

"Trump will probably want to focus on what he sees as a positive agenda rather than a criticism of Russian behavior," she said.

With such polarized positions on Crimea, it could be difficult for both leaders to start negotiations on anything else, Taylor said. So Trump could choose to send Crimea back to the UN Security Council ", where a solution involving a peacekeeping force and an interim international administration for Donbbad (a troubled region in the east) of Ukraine between the pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government) could be "That, in turn, could allow discussions on other issues," added Taylor. "19659002]" Given the style unconventional President Trump and his past statements that imply that he has raised electoral interference and has achieved no results with President Putin, he may decide Jamie Fly, principal investigator at the German Marshall Fund of the States States, said: "Trump and Putin could also consider these topics as a settled matter and no longer worth discussing," said Leon Aron, a resident. researcher and director of Russian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

Enemies or competitors?

On the way to the NATO summit, Trump predicted that his face-to-face with Putin would be the "easiest" part of his week-long trip to Europe. Trump, who during the presidential campaign described the Russian president as a "strong leader," said Tuesday that he "can not say now" if Putin is a friend or foe, calling him instead a "competitor".

followed a tense two-day summit at NATO, Trump demanding that his colleagues pay more in the defense fund and describing Germany as "totally controlled by Russia" to buy gas there.

READ MORE: Trump scolded Germany to buy Russian gas. Here's What We Know

When Ryan Chilcote of PBS NewsHour asked Trump if his critics of NATO were allowing Putin, Trump responded that he was getting NATO members to pay more for the defense does not help Russia. "I think NATO is much stronger today than it was two days ago," he added, adding that "rather than d & # 39; be dissatisfied ", the other NATO members thanked him for meeting Putin

. "I welcomed the meeting with President Putin," May said Friday. "But what is important is that the President takes part in this task, from a position of strength and position of unity in NATO."

Timing is everything

  Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa can meet at Checkers in Buckinghamshire, Great Britain. Photo by Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May meet at Checkers in Buckinghamshire, Great Britain. Photo by Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

The meeting itself is not a problem, Fly said. "The United States and Russia are the two largest nuclear powers in the world and should be able to discuss global problems.The danger is in the way the meeting is dealt with."

Former presidents of both parties sought cooperation with Russian leaders to end up with little return, explained Fly. "Given the current state of US-Russian relations and Russia's ongoing interference in American democracy, President Putin will use the meeting to his advantage."

An informal meeting like this, without a structured agenda, could make Trump say something that explodes later, Aron said. Trump's spontaneous remarks among his European counterparts, as in Crimea, could give Putin more meaning and could make Putin believe that he can handle Trump, Aron said. Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom Foundation, said that it is the opportunity of Trump to resist Putin. "The Russians are not our friends, they are not our partners – they are our adversaries." Trump must "project real strength and determination" in the face of America's biggest opponent right now, Gardiner said.

On the other hand, the director of the RAND Business Leaders Forum described the benefits of a more constructive approach in a column that he co-authored with Kenneth Yalowitz for RAND. Trump and Putin should consider reopening exchange programs, such as those aimed at high school students, which helped to overcome the mistrust of the Cold War era when participants from both countries got to know each other better. , wrote Courtney

. reverse a worrying decline of independent expertise and sustained dialogue, and help establish a broader base for the improvement of US-Russian relations ", as they have done previously in the fields of space exploration, Arctic and medical research. the result of the meeting in something concrete?

It is too early to say. Trump might simply want to demonstrate that he succeeded where his predecessors failed, Aron said. "My feeling is that Trump wanted to show that while the Obama administration was failing to establish some kind of relationship with Putin with the" reset, "it would establish that kind of relationship, despite the deep sanctions and divisions."

without any written agreement, the senior administration official said that the meeting could improve the atmosphere for future transactions. "I think the fact that we have a peak at this level, right now in history is a deliverable in itself."

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