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Whatever the prospects for a "new" Pakistan emerging from this week's general election, expectations of a major shift in the country's regional policies may be misguided. The elected Prime Minister, Imran Khan of the Pakistani Justice Party (PTI), in his victory speech of July 26, did the same, emphasizing the continuity of foreign policy.
The reasons are not difficult to establish.
For decades, Pakistan's regional foreign policies vis-à-vis India and Afghanistan have been the preserve of the military and have been treated as extensions of national security. Attempts by elected governments to develop independent regional policies or engage in dialogue with their neighbors, including India, have resulted in heavy penalties.
Indeed, many parties will learn from the disqualification of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. India and the support of Islamist militants in Afghanistan have angered the army.
It is therefore not surprising that the ITP manifesto wished to reiterate Pakistan's demand for a settlement of the Kashmir conflict with India in accordance with United Nations resolutions. avoid problems of bilateral trade or regional connectivity.
Emboldened by its electoral victory, a PTI-led government could take interim measures to reduce tensions with India, if only to focus on its national agenda and deliver on the ambitious promise of the ITP. Introduce an "Islamic welfare state".
But if this is the case, the new government will probably not depart from the rigid parameters of the military, who remain firmly opposed to any dialogue aimed at linking bilateral cooperation with India to the Pakistan question. .
These parameters could harden if the radical Islamist parties – doomed to conflict with India (by means of terrorist means if necessary) and entered the electoral scramble for the first time – decide to beef up their forces.
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Army control over Pakistan's Afghan policy is also unlikely to be abandoned at the next government. While the ITP supports Afghan sovereignty and opposed the presence of US forces in Afghanistan, it has endeavored to emphasize its common concern to the military to resist "the war". Strategic encirclement "of Pakistan by means of a Kabul-New Delhi axis. The PTI's call for dialogue with the Afghan Taliban also resonates with the position of the Pakistani army, which has singularly hesitated to act against the Afghan Taliban factions, including the Haqqani network, or to eliminate their sanctuaries in Pakistan. .
conciliation position with the Pakistani Taliban (he donated more than $ 3 million while he was in power in Khyber-Pakhtukhwa at the infamous Haqqania religious seminary, led by a religious known as name of "father of the Taliban"). fierce campaign against the group. Yet a PTI-led government is unlikely to risk its fortune (at least in the short term) by contradicting the military and demanding negotiations with the Pakistani Taliban
The ITP will continue to foster the expansion of relations with the Pakistani Taliban. China. The party could deny the credit owed to former Prime Minister Sharif and his party for seeing China's commitment to invest billions of dollars in the Sino-Pakistani economic corridor, but a government led by PTI will not ask questions
Despite the preference of the ITP for closer relations with Iran (partly in contempt of the United States, against whom the ITP conducted a vitriolic campaign), strategic considerations enlightened by the closure of the military The security partnership with Saudi Arabia is likely to act as a constraint. In 2015, the military challenged a parliamentary resolution rejecting a Saudi request to send troops to Yemen, saying that it would jeopardize Pakistan's future relations with Iran.
The real power to decide the direction of the army policies and not with the next prime minister. This power could worsen in the case of a weak coalition government or a rebellious parliament, which would allow even more leeway for the army to impose its own vision of the regional interests of the country. Pakistan.
<p clbad = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " This piece was at Originally published by Chatham House . "data-reactid =" 30 "> This coin was published by Chatham House .
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