Why New Caledonia votes for the independence of France

Who can vote?

The total population of New Caledonia, including children, was 269,000 at the 2014 census in France. But just over 174,000 people – those with longstanding ties to the territory – have the right to vote in the referendum.

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Is there an ethnic cleavage?

The Kanak indigenous community of the territory, which accounted for 39% of the population in 2014, was long discriminated against before the French colonial rule before 1946. The radical independence movement of the 1980s was based among the Kanak and they are support independence now.

In the 2014 census, 27% of the population declared themselves "European". Mainly from French settlers and convicts deported to the prison colony of New Caledonia, they were the foundation of the opposition to independence.

The other major ethnic groups are those with origins in several communities (8.6%); Wallisians and Futunians, at 8.2%; and those who simply call "New Caledonians" at 7.4%.

What happens next?

The results are expected in the hours following the closing of the polls at 6:00 pm local time (6:00 pm EDT) on Sunday. French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced that he will arrive in Noumea on Monday to discuss next steps with local political forces, whatever the outcome.

In the event of a favorable vote, France will be in charge of transferring the remaining powers – in terms of security, defense, foreign policy and money – and New Caledonia will become an independent State.

Polls suggest that a "no" vote is much more likely. In this case, the territory will retain its wide autonomy, guaranteed by the Noumea agreement of 1998 "irreversible".

The Noumea Accord also provides that one-third of the members of the local parliament can trigger up to two additional votes for independence over the next four years.

If both of them fail, then, under the terms of the agreement, "the political partners will meet to examine the situation thus provoked".

DPA