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ESPN Staff
After two weeks of incredible tennis, countless upheavals and ever-changing coronavirus protocols, we reached the women’s final at the 2021 Australian Open, as No.3 seed Naomi Osaka takes on the lead of Series # 22 Jennifer Brady Saturday (3:30 a.m. ET). , ESPN and ESPN App).
Osaka, 23, who beat Serena Williams in the semifinals, is seeking her fourth Slam title and her second in Melbourne. She is 3-0 in the major finals and on a 20-game winning streak.
Brady, 25, is making his first grand finale. After taking a somewhat unorthodox path to the pro ranks and playing for two seasons at UCLA, she is seeking to become the first former varsity player to win a slam since John McEnroe at the US Open in 1984.
Osaka won their last encounter, 7-6 (1), 3-6, 6-3, in a thrilling semi-final at the 2020 US Open and holds a career advantage of 2-1.
What are the keys to victories and scenarios to watch? ESPN analysts Chris Evert, Pam Shriver and Rennae Stubbs – who have combined 49 major titles in singles, doubles and mixed doubles – get a preview of the game.
The experience factor
Stubbs: There is so much pomp and ceremony at the Australian Open, it’s like the US Open with music and lights. When you first step onto the court for a final, it’s an out-of-body experience. Anyone who plays a Grand Slam final is always nervous, so Osaka always will be, but she’s used to the moment and can handle it. She has such an emotional edge because she has experienced it so many times.
For Brady, it will be such a new and overwhelming experience, and it will all depend on how she handles this moment. People at home don’t quite understand what it’s like to be in this situation for the very first time. Brady is going to have to overcome many emotional and mental obstacles. Her tennis is there and she knows she can hang out with Osaka after their US Open reunion, but that will depend on how she handles the enormity of the occasion.
Evert: I don’t think anyone ever knows how you’re going to react in your first final. Let’s just say it over there: some players have faded; some played brilliantly. That’s a big question mark for anyone in their first final. And believe me, the final is very different from a semi-final. I always believed, even in a quarter or a half, that there were other matches around you. You weren’t the main attraction. In the end, it’s you and you are either a winner or a loser.
The way Osaka talks about it, “People only remember the winner so you have to win”, and given the success she has had at this level in Slam, her mentality is clear. As a junior Brady would get nervous and go wild, but I’ve seen a new Jen for the past few years. She is a fighter; but her since she has never acted on this stage before, we really do not know how she will do it.
Shriver: I was scared to death when I played Chrissie in the 1978 US Open final, and one of the regrets I have about that final is that I honestly didn’t believe I could win. I was 16 and was trying to put on a good show and I was terrified of blowing myself up. Brady is quite old and once played in Osaka; She is a strong athlete with great mental capacities, so she will feel more prepared than me. Osaka has the obvious advantage here – given her history in the previous three majors she’s won and the fact that she’s never lost when she comes into the quarterback or beyond.
The importance of service
Stubbs: It was clear from the start of their US Open game that service dress was imperative, and the two did so as the first set ended in a tie-break. It’s important for Brady to serve a very high percentage of first serves, but also to mix up his kicker, which is such a weapon as well. Osaka was a bit vulnerable against Serena Williams at times, posting three double faults to lose her serve in that second set match and her pitch was all over the place. If I coach Brady I would say, “Look, even if she’s serving you off the field, keep the pressure on the scoreboard by hosting your own service matches as she’s possible she may lose pace on her serve at times. .
It’s a bit like a men’s game. You lose a serve in a men’s game and you have issues, and with the big serves from these two players it will come down to that as well.
Shriver: The big serves of the two players are very comparable, but Brady is a little different than Osaka’s – it’s more fun. Brady’s forehand could also be as good as Osaka’s, but they hit it differently – Osaka’s is flatter and Brady has more RPMs. But if Brady is having a great day with those two hits, it gives him a reasonable chance.
But she has to have a full match; she can’t be in and out like she was in her semi-final against Karolina Muchova. She must remain consistent and be able to regain the freedom she found in this semi-final at the US Open. She had such impressive freedom in a great game. She needs to find that in the final.
The crowd
Stubbs: Osaka has run the gamut with crowds in its three major titles. She had a crowd she probably wanted to hide from at the 2018 US Open, a loving crowd at the 2019 Australian Open (when she won that amazing match against Petra Kvitova), then won the US Open from the last year with no one in the crowd due to COVID-19 restrictions. In all three scenarios, she did well. This match won’t have a full crowd due to pandemic protocols, so it will look like a regular match for her.
I wouldn’t say crowds are a bad thing for Brady, and it’s nice that it won’t be the crowded stadium we would normally see. During the semi-finals, we saw her in turn to liven up the crowd and we said to ourselves: “Come on!” after hitting her first match point and it threw her away. When I asked her about it afterwards, Brady said she immediately thought, “What am I doing? Now I have all this pressure on me to win the game.” She loves to entertain, but it’s not a show, and she needs to be more professional with her emotions in the finale.
Evert: The crowd would be a bigger factor if there was an Aussie player playing. I think the fans are going to applaud for the good moves of both players. Osaka is always a favorite wherever she goes, but fans will be respectful of both. Once the pandemic started, I always said it was a little easier for the lower-ranked players as they weren’t used to being on center court with 15,000 fans watching them. It took some of the pressure off – you can just go play without anyone looking like it’s an important practice match. It changes the dynamic and the mood with the fans returning, and Osaka might have an easier time readjusting to that than Brady.
Shriver: When you think of Brady’s best results, winning Lexington, making the US Open semi-finals is during the pandemic and in front of no fans. I don’t think we know enough about her in front of a crowd at this point, so it’s like the crowd there favors Osaka.
Strong minded
Stubbs: Tennis is the most incredible battle with yourself as well as your opponent. It’s a mental battle like no other. When Osaka fought two match points against Garbine Muguruza in the fourth round and pulled that match, it changed everything for her emotionally. She can overcome anything on the court and now plays with the money of the house. She’s played really, really well, really well since that game and she’s the favorite, so she’ll walk the pitch as settled and confident as possible.
After their US Open reunion, if Brady can look at it pragmatically and say, “My tennis is there, my tennis can match Naomi’s,” that’s a huge leveler. I was calling this game, and one of the things I was wondering about in the third set was whether she really believed she was good enough to win the game. I’m always talking about the subconscious and the conscious mind, and if they don’t agree with each other, it’s really hard to talk to each other about something. At the US Open I thought her subconscious mind didn’t quite believe she was ready and good enough to win the game, so she has to watch the game and realize that the difference may have been her lack of belief. If she can say, “This time I really believe,” she could win the game.
Evert: I was very impressed with the mental aspect of both players in their matches throughout this tournament. Osaka can just block everything and play with so much calm and poise. She had such confidence in herself, especially during the game against Serena, even when she was lagging behind early. During Brady’s semi-final, she knew that if she hit 5 points, anything could happen. The fact that she has remained calm and has shown that she can dig under pressure when she needs to is impressive. We know the physical skills and powers of both players, but the mental part is a bit more difficult. They both kept calm and that can make the difference in a tough game.
Shriver: Brady beat up Jessica Pegula, a close friend of his, in the neighborhoods and I’m not sure people understand how difficult it was. There is a lot of emotion in playing and beating a great friend. She did that and then had to play Muchova the next day, and I think that’s part of the reason she didn’t play well. She couldn’t get out of her own way in the last game. He was 18 points long and she had five match points. But she succeeded, and now she has the regular 48 hours to prepare in Osaka and reset. Having lost the first set to Osaka in New York, she knows she has the ability to fight if she needs to.
Osaka was clearly nervous at first against Serena – her ball throw went a little crazy for a while, but she recovered. Considering the way she plays, her history of her previous three major wins, knowing she was able to beat Brady after Brady threw everything at her at the US Open, she has to come into this one with a lot of trust. Until someone can prove they can beat her late in the majors, Osaka’s winner mentality will be hard to stop.
Prediction
Stubbs: I believe Jen Brady has the weapons and the game to win a Grand Slam, maybe it’s a bit too much to ask for in her first final. Osaka in three sets.
Evert: Osaka in straight sets.
Shriver: Osaka was my choice to win it at the start of the tournament and Brady was my dark horse, so I’m going to take advantage. I can see him go to three sets, but Osaka will win.
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