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After the end of last week in Germany, the order intake of the industry and industrial production with a monthly rise of 2.6% surprised positively, the May trade balance is also expected to increase in a monthly comparison. After the seasonally seasonally adjusted surplus of 19.4 billion euros in April, badysts at HSBC are forecasting a slight rise to 19.9 billion euros. In total, May's economic data should support the Bank's image that the domestic economy will grow even faster in the second quarter of 2018 than in the first quarter. For the period from April to June, economists predict GDP growth of 0.5% qoq
US labor market with shadow and light at the same time
Last week, the market for American work has provided some surprises for the month of June, on the one hand, the unemployment rate went from 3.8% in May to 4.0% in June. Market consensus was expected at a persistence of 3.8%. On the other hand, the creation of 213,000 new jobs was slightly higher than the 195,000 market expectations. Since 2012, the monthly average of new jobs has been just over 200,000. hourly rate of pay was 2.7% in June. This is also the previous annual average value. Inflationary pressures in the labor market remain limited
Market reaction
The euro has strengthened after the US employment report to set the 1-point mark, $ 1750. The US trade deficit in May fell to $ 43.1 billion, the lowest level since October 2016. But even that did not help the dollar. Even if one could expect positive surprises from Germany, this should not give rise to significant impulses for Euro-Dollar quotations. (hw)
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