Industrial activity cools slightly in summer

The Federation of Industrialists (IV) expects a slight weakening of the Hochkonjuktur. And believes that the 12-hour work day will not be heated in the autumn pay cycle. What, of course, the armed men see differently. In Germany, the economy has surprisingly gained a dent.

Vienna.
Austria is not only summer in summer, but also economically. But the summer is a thunderstorm – and thunderstorms are currently on the economic sky. Peter Koren, Deputy Secretary General of the Federation of Industries, and Chief Economist Christian Helmenstein explain the current economic situation with the latest Economic Barometer IV on Tuesday.

"At the moment, we are still in a high phase but in the coming quarters is waiting for the pace of expansion," Koren told reporters on Tuesday in Vienna. "With a seasonally adjusted growth rate of 10% in real terms in the first quarter of this year compared with the same quarter of the previous year, the production of goods has been the engine of Austrian economic success but has reached its economic peak in the first quarter. " 19659004] Expectations for the next six months have fallen sharply from past expectations – by more than 20 to 10 points in the IV Economic Barometer. The economic summer in Austria ends so gradually. "This does not mean that we are currently waiting for the winter," says Helmenstein. The pace of growth will normalize much more, according to the expert.

The IV expects real GDP growth of 1.75 to 2% next year – a potential growth of 1.8 per cent. Among other things, the close integration with Germany, where a shortage of manpower slows growth. In this country, the inclination to stay good, but will also weaken a little.

"The slowdown in growth this year to the coming year is quite remarkable," said Chief Economist IV. Fiscal (that is to say for the state budget), the revenue momentum of next year remains "good". In 2020, however, a weakening must be taken into account, so expenditure reforms are needed.

Storm clouds come from far away, as is common in the weather, by far, Koren said. It concerns the commercial disputes, the modalities and the partly unstructured processes around Brexit as well as the prices of raw materials and / or oil supply (keyword Iran). "But there is also much to be done at the national level, especially in the education system, homework must be done," said the industry representative

. The Retail Purchasing Managers' Index for the Private Sector – Industry and Service Providers combined – fell 0.6 points to 54.3 points in July, the IHS Markit Institute reported on Tuesday. on his survey of some 4,000 companies

. above the growth threshold of 50 meters. However, according to IHS Markit, the data suggest that the gross domestic product of the euro area is expected to increase by only 0.4% in summer, compared to 0.5% in the second quarter.

The fight for the 12-hour work day

Employee representatives often announced a "hot autumn" in wage bargaining because of the federal government's flexibility of work schedules and dreaded social cuts. In this regard, industry representatives wanted to keep calm. It is good that negotiations are going well in the fall.

"We expect negotiations to be reasonable in the fall," said Vice-General Koren. "Our goal is to keep policy and pay bargaining as concrete as possible."

Koren hoped that the situation would "calm down during the summer". "We hear many conversations with our members in direct contact with local workers that the atmosphere is not as hot as in the entire debate, so we're positive that the wage negotiations will be well underway at the same time. 39, Autumn "

Asked whether changes in daily and weekly work hours could curb job creation that is already slowing, Chief Economist IV, Christian Helmenstein, said:" On the contrary, competitiveness is increasing thanks to flexible hours, and that means a growth spurt. "

The unions, meanwhile, are preparing for a difficult autumn pay cycle. In September, there will be a conference for the first time of all the negotiators of all the unions, that is to say all the business committees from all over Austria, said Wolfgang Katzian , the boss of the ÖGB. At the same time, he claimed the right to a four-day week.

The president of the PRO-GE production union and the Social Democratic Trade Unionist (FSG) Rainer Wimmer came out of a tough series of negotiations in the autumn: "For wages, all the unions will establish a The pay cycle will become "heavy," promised once, "says Wimmer. It will not only mean more money. They will take the government and the industry to the word and will claim the long promised leisure blocks as compensation for the 12-hour day

Germany grows

The German economy took off so surprising in July. The Markit index of purchasing managers – the industry and service providers together rose from 0.4 to 55.2 points, the highest level since February, as the Tuesday announced the IHS Markit Institute to its survey of about 800 companies. On the other hand, economists were expecting a slight drop to 54.7 meters.

The barometer therefore remains above the growth threshold of 50 meters. "This time, the industry sector has seen the strongest growth after being the service sector in June," said Markit economist Trevor Balchin.

Many experts badume that the recovery in Germany has already peaked. As a result, many economists and institutes have recently lowered their economic forecasts for Germany and justified this mostly by the uncertainty caused by the trade dispute with the United States