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After a brief rebound in the bear market since last Thursday, WASDE's most attractive monthly market report on global supply balances has been one of the most attentive to global grain trade. rally renewed wheat prices.
According to the report, the world consumes much more wheat and feed grain in 2018/19 than it produces and nibbles stocks to meet its growing needs, particularly in major exporting countries, reports aiz.info.
The USDA has significantly reduced its wheat production figures from 8.43 million tonnes to 736.26 million tonnes (2017/18: 757.92 million tonnes) due to the continuation of the drought. It's the smallest wheat crop in three years. On the other hand, consumption will rise to 748.87 million tonnes (741.75 million tonnes in 2017/18), leaving a deficit of 12.62 million tonnes of wheat on the balance sheet.
Wheat dumps of major exporters drop to 13% of consumption
According to Reuters calculations, the ratio of stock to consumption (values below 20% are considered prices) the exporting countries responsible for 90% of world wheat trade (Russia, Canada, Ukraine, USA, Australia, EU, Kazakhstan and Argentina) have increased dramatically to 13.11% (2017/18: 17.16%). This figure remains below 13.12% compared to the 2007/08 financial year with wheat price increases – for example 282,50 euros / t for premium wheat on the Vienna Stock Exchange in March 2008 – and is the lowest since records began in 1961 aiz.info continues.
The Viennese Commodity Exchange on Wednesday marked the first premium wheat of the new crop in 2018. At 183 to 187 Euro / t, the price range was closed homogeneously and unchanged on the last harvest of the year. old crop.
Even Russia and the cereal strategy of forecasting lower wheat
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture lowered its wheat harvest forecast to 64.4 million tonnes on Friday afternoon (84.99 million tonnes in 2017/18) and the French badytical strategy Grains Thursday for the EU from 139.9 million tons to 132.4 million tons.The two current forecasts are therefore significantly lower than those of the USDA in the WASDE report
Already in June, Strategy Grains reduced the wheat harvest forecast in France from 4.6 million tonnes to 33.2 million tonnes (2017/18: 36.6 million tonnes). wheat prices rebounded on Euronext in Paris, but was again challenged by the markets and contributed to the recent price declines since the end of last week. ste was caused by conditions such as rains or uncertainty caused by the trade war between the United States and China, according to the press service.
Euronext's highest closing price on Euronext on 5 June of 186.75 € / t for September and 189.75 € / t for the December contract, it was 178 on Thursday of this week, 75 Euro / t for September and 181.00 Euro / t for the December delivery date back. Friday noon, September, the wheat in Paris has risen again to 184.25 euros / t and December harvest price of the new crop has risen to 185.75 euros / t.
Similarly, international corn and soybean prices were able to escape their lows as a result of the WASDE report.
It is also useful for EU exporters to see the euro fall back to $ 1.16 during the second half of the week, compared with 1.1735 in the middle of the week on June 11th. . At that date, the European Commission calculated fob export prices for the US sweet red winter of 204 USD / t (-8 USD last week), for EU 216 USD / t wheat ( unchanged) and for the buckwheat of 200 USD / t (+ 1 USD the previous week).
The agencies report that at the end of the week, however, the export prices of Russian suppliers to Asian competitors had increased by 10 USD / t (8.58 euros) compared to the losses harvest of their Australian competitors. Egypt this week bought 175,000 tons of Russian wheat for delivery in the second half of August at average fob prices of US $ 204.30 / t (175.24 euros).
The EU exported 208,678 tonnes of soft wheat between July 1st and July 8th in the first two weeks of the fiscal year (from July 1 to Monday), according to the daily news from customs authorities at the European Commission – 9% less than last year.
A lot of feed wheat in eastern and southeastern Europe
According to aiz.info, quality problems are becoming more and more common in neighboring countries. East and Southeast Europe. We are talking about hectoliters for wheat less than 70 kg and 40 to 60% for feed wheat. It is also badumed that the rain should cause Fusarium infestation on existing crops in Italy.
The forage corn quota remained low this week as well. There is still pressure with Eastern goods, say the Austrians. In addition, the Vienna Stock Exchange recorded food imports in Lower Austria. Although feed wheat from domestic production is in short supply, the CPT quotation of 161 euros / t, which is clearly based on the old crop, expresses abundant supply from neighboring countries. ;East.
USDA Report: The Impact of Drought and the Consequences of the Trade War on Oilseed Markets
Harvest in the USA
Image: CaseIH
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) notes in its July WASDE report the consequences of drought on balance sheets Global and consequences of punitive Chinese tariffs The world consumes much more wheat and fodder than it produces in 2018/19 and nibbles stocks to meet its growing needs, especially in major nations exporters.
The USDA lowers the global wheat harvest 2018/19 from 8.43 million tonnes to 736.26 million tonnes (2017/18: 757.92 million tonnes), the smallest amount in three However, consumption will rise to 748.87 million tonnes (741.75 million tonnes in 2017/18), leaving a deficit of 12.62 million tonnes of wheat. in the balance sheet.
The revision of harvest figures is mainly due to the EU, whose wheat production is reduced from 4.4 million tonnes to 145 million tonnes (2017/18: 151.58 million tonnes) . The cause is persistent drought, especially in the north.
Russia's wheat crop shrinks by 1.5 million tons to 67 million tons (84.99 million tons in 2017/18), and Australia's harvest by 2 million tons to 22 million tonnes (2017/18: 21.30 Mt T) and Ukraine from 1 thousand T to 25.50 million T (26.98 Mt T). Only the United States wheat crop will be revised upwards from 1.47 million tonnes to 51.21 million tonnes (2017/18: 47.37 million tonnes). Like the other major wheat exporters, Russia, Ukraine, Australia and the EU, the WASDE report still predicts a significant reduction in wheat storage for wheat. United States.
Forecasts for the global maize crop increased – but consumption increases even more
In the feed grain sector, the US agricultural sector increases EU corn production by 1.5 million tonnes at 61.50 million tonnes (2017/18: 62.22 million tonnes) and also in the United States from 4.83 million tonnes to 361.46 million tonnes (2017/18: 370.96 million tonnes). However, domestic consumption and US exports are growing so strongly that final maize harvests will fall by 27.71 million tonnes in 2018/19.
The USDA estimates that the overall depletion of maize is 39.77 million tonnes, an increase of 1.77 million tonnes more than a month ago. Corn reserves are melting from 17.92% for the current season to 13.89% by the end of the previous year. To meet its domestic needs, the EU will have to import 16 million tonnes of maize.
Oilseeds: the reduction in consumption leads to a balanced equilibrium
The world oilseed balance in 2018/19 is now almost balanced with a deficit of 0.2 million tonnes, after 7 in June, 41 million deficits were established. Production is reduced from 1.35 million tonnes to 592.59 million tonnes per month. However, the consumption forecast is set at 8.92 million tonnes on a monthly basis at 500.64 million tonnes.
Within oilseeds, the USDA raises soybean crops from 4.25 million tonnes to 359.49 million tonnes in 2018/19 (2017/18: 336.70 million tonnes). However, this is more than offset by a reduction of 2.6 million tonnes in world rapeseed production – especially in the EU, Australia, Russia and Ukraine – and by 2.9 million tonnes of oilseed rape. sunflowers due to drought in Russia. and Ukraine.
USDA: Trade War Changes World Soybean Market
Donald Trump shocks the markets and fuels the trade war with China
Image: Twitter @realDonaldTrump
The USDA writes about the impact of China's punitive tariffs on soy because of higher prices for beans in China and slower growth in soymeal consumption. It reduces the forecast for China's bean imports from 103 million tonnes to 95 million tonnes in 2018/19. At the same time, the report cuts US soybean exports by 6.8 million tonnes and Brazilian exports by 2.5 million tonnes.
While the United States exports less native soybeans, one expects Because of the collapse, more attractive prices have either consumed themselves or exported to alternative destinations. By contrast, soybean exports to South America are expected to decline, as bean exports are increasing at the expense of shredding.
Soybean export prices in Brazil increase by US $ 60 / t above US prices
According to press reports, fob prices for Brazilian soybeans have increased of 10 USD / t (8.58 euros) over the last two weeks) and are already in the order of 60 USD / t (51.47 euros) above those of US ports. In contrast, according to industry insiders in the United States, the demolition boom and let the oil mills due to the decline in record-breaking commodity wages shrink. Falling US prices should also attract bargain hunters from other importing regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
China bought $ 12 billion of soybeans ($ 10.29 billion) last year in the United States, according to the agencies. According to other reports, this should have been about 32.9 million tons of beans. This represents about a third of China's total import needs, which have recently amounted to about 100 million tons. Analysts doubt that China can do without the United States as a supplier. Rabobank estimates that it will still need to receive at least 15 million tons.
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