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The forecast for $ 100 of oil is still pending. But there is new sobriety in the market after oil prices fell earlier this week with a 7% drop.
Barclays, for its part, forecast more moderate growth in oil prices, envisioning a slow increase in the coming months, according to Reuters.
But that does not exclude $ 100 of oil.
Oil stocks remain tight. In the United States, crude oil inventories stood at 439.7 million barrels for the week ending July 16, down 7% from the five-year average for this time of year.
And the fear is that, as oil stocks remain tight around the world, oil could climb to $ 100 if OPEC + dragged its feet to bring oil production back to market. Saudi Arabia is one of the more conservative members of the group, which favors a more cautious approach to bringing supply back to market.
Of course, as Barclays pointed out in a note Thursday, OPEC + wouldn’t see this as a positive step because at $ 100 worth of oil there would be some erosion in demand.
Barclays expects cooperation among OPEC + members to continue, but believes the deal could go beyond the 400,000 bpd of monthly additions it has agreed to if Iran is able to increase production if it reaches a nuclear deal with the United States.
OPEC + agreed on Sunday to bring 400,000 bpd back to market in August, and another 400,000 bpd each month thereafter until the full cut in production is stopped.
But $ 100 of oil, while possible, is unlikely, according to Barclay’s, which sees the price of Brent averaging $ 69 a barrel this year, up from $ 66 a barrel in its previous estimate, with an average WTI of 67. $. Barclays sees Brent averaging $ 68 next year, and WTI averaging $ 65.
By Julianne Geiger for OilUSD
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