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OAKLAND, Calif. – After being defeated by the Blue Jays on August 9th, J. A. Happ proclaimed that it could cover almost everything that has happened in his professional field since October 5th.
"Right now, if it can go wrong, it's okay," said the veteran waffle.
Time is running out for Happ to correct the situation, to prove that it is part of the Yankees' playoff lineup, not to mention their playoff rotation. His departure Wednesday night against the A, here at the Oakland Coliseum, will mark an interesting test.
Yankees coach Larry Rothschild expressed his optimism for Happ on Tuesday before the Yankees' 6-2 loss to A. Rothschild said: "I think lately it's up to us have a habit of seeing, so I hope his trend will be on the rise, and that's the guy he is. "
The most useful piece of evidence in support of this would be Happ's latest start, a 6 to 5 victory over the dreaded Orioles at home on August 14, during which he allowed two runs on six hits and three walks, while eliminating six. According to Brooks Baseball's Pitchf / x, Happ's four-seam fastball, his average throw, averaged 92.21 mph, which is largely consistent with his current state.
In fact, the highest average speed of four innings of the season, 93.34, came to Minnesota on July 24, while it lasted only 3 ¹ / ₃ in heat and gave six points.
Hence the importance of Wednesday's departure. Heavily wounded by the gopher ball – his 29 licensed circuits earned him fourth place in the American League starting in action Tuesday – the 36-year-old can work knowing he has a little more leeway to errors, given the user-friendliness of the Coliseum. The A group is a good but not big offense that has seen a sharp rise in August while Oakland is fighting for a second place in the playoffs.
However, cutting hair too heavily on Happ, is missing the most important point: one way or another, Happ must find a way to better launch. Because a dive into his numbers does not reveal anyone who is very lucky to see him coming.
Let's start with the most common predictive metric for pitchers, FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching, which exclusively uses strikeouts, goals, hitting and tricks to determine how pitcher performance is influenced by the defense behind it. It is calculated to "look like" an ERA, and then you can compare the launcher's EAR to its FIP.
The EER of Happ is 5.40. His FIP is 5.55. So no, Happ can not point to anyone who works behind him holding a glove. On the contrary, his defense seems to have helped him a little. His xFIP of 4.90, which is calculated based on the number of flying ball launchers who surrendered and measure against them the average of the league of batters who leave the field, shows him unlucky with the long ball, it is so that.
What should be the most alarming for Happ is the sudden inefficiency of his lands. According to FanGraphs, his four sailors rated at 14.5 points are above average and his 3.4 cursor last season with the Blue Jays and Yankees. This year? -2.2 and -1.6, respectively. That can mean a lot, including the hard-hit bullet rate measured by FanGraphs of 40.1%, a dramatic increase from 30.9% in 2018.
It should be noted that Statcast, from MLB.com, does not measure such disparity, measuring the percentage of people hard hit last year at 34 and 37.6 this year. Nevertheless, it is going in the wrong direction.
If Happ and the Yankees can not stop the bleeding, if the final 20% and more of the schedule are as choppy as what preceded it, the thrower and his team have to deal with questions that go beyond the formula October launcher. What are you doing with Happ for next year while receiving an additional $ 17 million?
This represents a dilemma that the Yankees hope they do not have to think about. Although they are not completely short of time to avoid it. they will need almost all of their time to do it.
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