Pension Reform Will Strengthen Growth – News by Mail.Ru

The growth rate of the Russian economy may exceed 3% in the case of the implementation of new decrees of May, it follows from the updated forecasts of the Ministry of Economy. Recent government initiatives to raise the retirement age will in turn accelerate growth by 1.3 percentage points, while an increase in the VAT rate could result in a sharp slowdown in income growth. real next year.

4% in 2019 to 2% in 2020, in 2021 will be 3.1%, in 2022-2023 – 3.2%, and in 2024 – 3.3%, the Ministry of Economy forecast in its June report (growth rates this year may be 1.9%). The department indicated that the updated forecasts fully take into account the implementation of the new May decrees, but that they can be clarified taking into account the decisions taken. The report notes that the essential condition for ensuring a high sustainable economic growth rate is the redistribution of the cost structure in favor of investment, in the inertial scenario the potential GDP growth rates will remain at 1.5 -2.0%. The effect of this measure in 2019-2024 is estimated at 1.3 pp. The pension reform, according to the forecasts of the agency, will lead to an increase in the number of economically active population of 300 thousand people in 2 years. 019 and 1.8 million people by 2024.

The expected increase in VAT (from 18% to 20%), in turn, will accelerate inflation by 1, 3 pp ., As the share of goods and services, subject to basic VAT rate, in the consumption basket is 76%, the Ministry of Economy said. According to forecasts, inflation will increase from 2.3% per year to 3.1% by the end of 2018 and reach 4.3% by the end of 2019. By 2020, consumer price growth should slow down to 3.8%. Due to the acceleration of inflation, the growth of real wages of Russians will increase from 6.3% in 2018 to 0.8% in 2019.

Tatyana Edovina