Experts doubt the replacement of Russian gas by the United States

However, for US gas to compete with Russia, the price of oil is expected to remain high, badysts say. In addition, they are convinced that most of the US LNG will be absorbed by China.

The American Dream

The European Union has agreed to increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. Jean-Claude Junker. "They are going to become a very, very big buyer of LNG, and we are going to make it easier for them to buy, we have this LNG in abundance," said the president. Juncker has confirmed the words of the US leader, saying that "the EU will build more terminals for the import of LNG from the United States."

At the end of 2017, the United States delivered more than 3 billion cubic meters to Europe. m of gas, which is an insignificant amount, given that Europe consumed about 500 billion cubic meters last year. Under long-term contracts (four in total) with Europeans, the United States is expected to supply an additional 8.4 billion cubic meters. "For the United States, the European market is more attractive than the Asian market, because its exporters, with a minimum price differential with ATR, benefit from lower logistics costs," says consultant Vygon Consulting. Ekaterina Kolbikova. According to his calculations, the volume of US LNG exports to Europe, while maintaining the share of supplies, could reach 15 billion cubic meters. m in 2020 and 25 billion by 2030.

Comparable forecasts and the badyst of the Energy Center of the Moscow School of Management "Skolkovo" Alexander Sobko. "If the parties agree on the price, then the European market could come in the future 10-30 billion cubic meters." The United States does not interfere with the construction of Nord Stream 2, but they receive a small additional market for their LNG, "he says.

With current high oil prices, US LNG can already compete in price with the price of Russian gas ( is bound to oil quotes – prim.red ), says Sobko.At the same time, if the price of oil drops again, Russian gas will become cheaper.To compete with Russian gas in the long run, Americans need to reduce their projects by 10 to 15%, said Vbadili Tanourkov, deputy director of the ACRA rating group, however, in his opinion, the European market will not become the main market of the United States

"This n & n Is not so much that Russian gas is cheaper, but that the prices of the LNG in Asia are much higher. At the same time, China will absorb a significant share of US LNG, where gas demand will grow at a tremendous rate in the coming years, "he added

." Russia's favorable position on the curve gas supply prices in Europe will allow it to further increase its market share if politically this product is in demand, "said Kolbikova.According to Vygon Consulting, the cost of supplying Bovanenkovo ​​field gas, which will serve as a resource base for the Nord Stream-2 project, is $ 156 per 1,000 cubic meters, while the US LNG export cost in 2017 was about $ 255 per 1,000 cubic meters m with an average gas price in Europe $ 200 per thousand cubic meters.

US LNG should be used to fill the gas deficit during peak periods, and it will also go to countries that do not receive gas from Russia, Tanurkov adds.

The largest LNG buyers in Europe are Spain, the United Kingdom and France. "But the growth potential of LNG demand in these countries is very limited compared to the growing demand in Asia, and it will not be competing with Russian gas, but by exports from Qatar and Africa. North". European LNG receiving terminals are now estimated at 200 million tonnes, but their load does not exceed 27%, experts say. "Theoretically, the United Kingdom could buy more LNG in the United States – it has the capacity to receive LNG and the need to import gas – but so far, we are seeing the opposite process. Even the US LNG that has already been purchased by British Centrica under a long-term contract for the island's supply has been partially resold, "sums up Mr. Sobko