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Source: Reuters
The VAT increase on the eve of the first reading in the State Duma from 18% to 20% since 2019 will have very mixed consequences for the Russians. "Next year should be quite difficult from the point of view of adaptation to decisions taken in the field of [politique fiscale-budgétaire]
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The experts of "Gazeta Ru" believe that the "real image of the economy" in the near future may seem even more pessimistic than expected by the Ministry of Economic Development
The Russians will remain without purchases
2018 was the first year where the real income of Russians monetary income is the net population income from compulsory payments, adjusted for the consumer price index (Gazeta.ru) began to grow after a four-year decline.
Thus, in 2017, they decreased by 1.7%, in 2016 – from 5.8% in 2015 – by 3.2%, in 2014 – by 0.7%. In January-May 2018, taking into account a lump-sum payment to retirees of 5 thousand rubles in January 2017, real incomes grew by 2%, and without taking into account, by 3.2%, said Rosstat recently . Revenues in 2018 finally stabilized and began to grow, says Kiselev Andrey (MBA), Managing Partner of Genesis.
In 2018, the Russians had many reasons to rejoice. Thus, the government has indexed to the target level the wages of workers in the social sphere, the minimum wage has been raised to subsistence level.
Real income growth led Russians to feel more confident and began making major purchases. says Alexei Korenev, an badyst at Finam. That's why consumer credit has risen sharply this year: our fellow citizens have not been afraid to borrow money for purchases, he adds.
At the same time, given the expected increase in VAT, some citizens can buy durable goods at the end of the year as originally planned, estimates Bogdan Zvarych,
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In 2019, far less than the Russians. According to Korenev, next year, the Russians will save more, and not spend and postpone all major purchases at a more favorable time.
According to the chief economist of BCS Global Markets, Vladimir Tikhomirov, at least in the first quarter of next year. slow down to zero and even go negative. Aleksey Korenev, in turn, believes that if real incomes are positive by the end of this year, next year they will decline, as the previous four years.
Russians will pay "tax on inflation"
Almost none A major economic forum of recent times has not been bypbaded without officials bragging about the fact that it is not the most important. 4% inflation target has been achieved. According to forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development, the effect of the VAT increase in 2019 will already be felt in 2018, but by the end of this year, the price increase will be 3.1 %. But already in 2019, inflation will reach 4.3%. At the same time, according to the Ministry, an "accounting" contribution to the inflation of a base VAT rate increase of 18% to 20% is estimated at 1.3 pp
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However, experts believe that officials underestimate the cost of products.
"The decision to increase VAT has been taken because it is a very simple tax to charge and bill, but the fact is that it is included several times in the supply chain of the goods and that its increase will have a multiplier effect on prices.
Thus, a VAT increase of 2 points may result in a price increase of 4-5 percentage points In addition to the general level of inflation, VAT and the "inflationary tax" will have to be paid to all households and businesses, which will widen the gray market and reduce the general motivation for inflation. entrepreneurship in the country, "says Alexander Shustov, CEO of Mani Fanny Koreneva, despite the fact that officials convince that rising prices will not affect socially important goods, these products are connected by a" chain with counterparties ", so they increase will also be included in the price
for such
At the same time, according to Korenev, in the official inflation of next year can reach 4.3% to 4.6%, but "it will be much higher". The list of goods and services, which account for official inflation, raises a lot of questions, says the expert. Even today, despite the fact that inflation should be 3.6% this year, the Russians perceive it as 8-9%, notes Korenev.
Anastasia Sosnova, an badyst at Freedom Finance Analyst, explains that the official inflation could exceed 2019 4.5%, if there are "additional" negative factors to the VAT increase – for example, "the volatility of the ruble will increase".
The Department of Economic Development drew cautious estimates of the impact of changes on GDP dynamics. Given that the changes implemented will have an impact on consumption, especially in Russia, GDP growth rates could be less than 1%
Bogdan Zvarych
Vice President of GIFA
See also [19659006] According to Mikhail Krylov, director of the badytical department of Golden Hills-Kapital AM, the VAT increase will force the company to save more "on the development of capital productivity and capital renewal". This means that the salary will be increased much less often.
Even if some pay moments start to increase, the increase in the tax burden will absorb this increase, Shustov says.
"It was possible According to him, the money from the VAT increase should be spent for social projects, and the standard of living of Russians should increase, but it will be difficult to raising the standard of living, in contrast to the simple dispersion of price growth. "
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