Geopolitics is affecting more and more the Russian ruble

During the last week, the Belarusian ruble has weakened. The dollar rose 0.1% to 1.9916, the euro depreciated 0.4% to 2.3222, and the Russian ruble gained 0.7% to 3.1724. In general, the national currency lost 0.3% in the basket

The Russian ruble gained 0.9% on the foreign markets during the last week, which is reflected in our market. But, despite the growth, the week for Russian currency has not been easy. On the evening of Tuesday, July 24, the Russian ruble was literally weakened by more than 1% in 1945 due to the fact that US senators announced a new bill to extend the sanctions against Russia. It has been reported that the new sanctions will be directed against the national debt, as well as the energy and financial sectors of the economy. In addition, a commentary on the intervention of Russia in the US elections in his Twitter was published by Trump, who again lobbied the ruble.

It should be noted that the Russian currency has fallen significantly despite the continuation of oil prices the factors were supposed to contribute to the strengthening of the Russian ruble.

And this again confirms that it is the geopolitical factors that are now determining for the Russian currency. Oil, the Ministry of Finance's operations on the foreign exchange market, payments on foreign debt and other fundamental factors are withdrawing against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in Russia

The ruble recovers completely the losses, but it must prepare the dynamics of the Russian currency. to be completely unpredictable. Geopolitical risks are insidious, including the fact that they are hardly predicted. And given the close commercial ties between Belarus and Russia, geopolitics carries some risks for us.

If it is without force majeure, it is unlikely that next week brings anything to the currency market again And in the medium term, given a number of external risks and internal, the probability of a moderate growth of the rates of the three foreign currencies is large.