Moody's considers the aging of the population as a threat to the CIS economy

Gradually raising the retirement age, the CIS countries respond to the economic threats caused by the aging of the population. The international rating agency Moody's in his report "CIS: differences in working-age population will determine credit profiles" noted that demographic forecasts for CIS countries remain unfavorable

In the coming years, all countries of the CIS the growing burden on the pension system. The exact impact on GDP will vary for each country, depending on the number of valid people.

In countries where the population is aging, health and pension expenditures will increase and the tax base will decrease. According to the report, Kazakhstan has more advantageous positions compared to its neighbors. The population, although aging, is "moderate". According to the experience of other countries of the world, serious state investment in the pension system, the support of entrepreneurship, a real accumulation of capital will help alleviate the demographic crisis .

Investments in human capital – education, health, creativity. Such state investments improve the standard of living of all people in the country. According to the report, investment in education only progresses in Kazakhstan, Georgia and Russia

The age of retirement is inevitable

Vulnerable to Demographic changes, the agency considers the economies of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine. Armenia For example, in Belarus, the number of people with disabilities over the next ten years will increase from 5% to 8%, which will result in a GDP decline of about 0.2%. For Belarus, it is a big indicator.

The income growth gap is another risk. For example, for Belarus and Ukraine, the proximity of the EU countries, with a higher standard of living, means the departure of the population able to income and the loss of taxes [19659004] In Kyrgyzstan, according to Moody's, the aging of the population will result in the most negative financial consequences. The population aged 60 and over is growing rapidly in relation to the working-age population, but the country is not reforming. Currently, pension costs in Kyrgyzstan represent 8.2% of GDP. These expenditures will increase by three to four percent over the next decade.

The cost of pensions for citizens is the most expensive item in the consolidated state budget. Probably, in the future, the governments of all CIS countries will reconsider tax policy . Retirees will not be treated in the same way as "seniors", but will motivate them to work. On the other hand, to reduce the benefits and the violation of rights, retirees can fully respond to elections by changing the political landscape. Retirees are already an important part of the electorate and will become in the future a serious political force with which politicians will have to rely.