Russians' real income growth continues to slow

Wages continued to grow, but not as fast as before – by 7.2% in annual terms. At the same time, Rosstat revised the data on wage growth in May – from 7.3% to 7.6%. Given the June review compared to May, wage growth slowed 0.4%. The expected growth acceleration due to an increase in the minimum wage (19459004), to 11,163 rubles from May 2018 – "Vedomosti" ) did not take place, notes the chief economist from the Center for Strategic Studies, Igor Polyakov. But Rosstat is still reviewing the data, Rosstat does not perform separate monthly components of its revenues, a real estimate can only be obtained at the end of the quarter.

The growth of real incomes in recent months is solely due to elections and higher salaries of civil servants. Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Global Markets

According to Vladimir Putin's decree of May 2012, the real salary of teachers, doctors and scientists in 2018 should be 100 to 200% of the region's average. Revenues have really increased, but as soon as the elections are over, they have retreated to the previous level, it is impossible to maintain their high rates by the state forces, Tikhomirov believes.

In the second half, incomes will stop growing

The World Cup, which was held in Russia from June 14 to July 15, could not fail to affect him, stresses Polyakov. The expenses of the population began to increase even before the championship because of ticket purchases, football attributes. According to estimates from the Central Bank, the World Cup will accelerate the growth of the Russian economy this year by 0.1-0.2 pp. But the growth is due to tourists, and not to the growing demand of the population, so in the short term, Tikhomirov believes. The growth rate of the retail trade will continue, argues the chief economist Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. Since 2014, the population has reduced its arrears to banks, since the beginning of the year, on the contrary, it has increased, but new loans have been used to repay existing debts, she recalls: " Since June, people have been taking credit for consumption and, most likely, will continue to take it. "