Toxic debts: the most dangerous is the increase in loans of Russians

In the first five months of 2018, the total Russian debt to credit institutions increased by 26% to 13.5 trillion rubles. Thus, we continue to observe the real consumer loan boom despite still high interest rates.

Provided mainly to mortgages – the locomotive of the retail trade for the banking system: the growth rate of the total mortgage portfolio of Russian banks segments

Mortgage loans account for more than 40% of the total mbad of loans to population.

Gradual reduction of the average mortgage rate from 10% to 7-8% Has long been positioned as a political task. On the one hand, it is still a lot, but on the other hand, rates limit the galloping influx of new borrowers into the system.

We must not forget the key risk of the housing loan segment remains negative). In other words, the mortgage portfolios of credit institutions are developing with a cheaper badet in pledges

What is the danger

Despite the fact that, according to Rosstat, the growth of the GDP is the same? is accelerated the real incomes of the population are still not very optimistic. Last year, real incomes of Russians decreased by 1.7%. In the recalculation since 2014, the decline was 11.5%.

Regional statistics are even more negative – the order of the figures reaches 20% and even 30% (Republics of Tyva, Komi, Chelyabinsk, Samara, Kemerovo, Magadan, Perm Krai). In 2017, the real momentum of real disposable income of the population is about 3.3% lower than in 2011 and 11.4% lower than the 2014 peak values. previous year was 7% (taking into account the adjustment of a single payment to retirees of 5,000 the previous year).

Statistics for the first quarter of 2018 and preliminary data (April-May 2018) indicate a very unusual trend The growth of wages did not lead to an increase in expenditures.

For example, the indexation of pensions in 2017 immediately reflected spending (even though retirees are more cautious in spending). The wage dynamics (+ 10.5%, a leap at the start of the year) is mainly due to serious pre-election injections in the budget sector. Real disposable income (+ 0.9%) is higher than the "first quarter" after the first quarter, given wage dynamics.

But this has not yet affected demand, confirmed by the weak dynamics of retail trade and paid services. at the level of 2%). Factors such as lower margins, lower LFL revenues (comparable store revenues), weak LFL dynamics and average check size do not give rise to optimism.

. 1.8%, it is below the level of cumulative inflation. This does not increase optimism in predicting the growth of real incomes available and the fact that since July 1 of the current year, the amount of mandatory payments such as housing services and communal and electricity has increased. The impact of the growth of gasoline and the future increase of VAT are also to be evaluated

Occupy and not save

In a context of declining income, the population of many regions is forced to support themselves. With an average debt in arrears of about 6.6% in some areas, the share of "delinquency" in front of banks is characterized by double digits.

In addition, according to the NBKI, 32% of Russians spend more than a third of their monthly income

In itself, the growth of the credit load under such conditions is an alarming signal and may lead to further growth of outstanding debts

Again, the growth rates of deposits remain half as important. that a cop t. We can only hope that our fellow citizens will not accumulate too much debt until their incomes begin to grow at last.