09:12 – Immigration, what are the costs and benefits for host countries?

"Burden" or "bargain"? Immigration raises recurrent questions in the host countries, where intellectuals and politicians divide on its economic impact.

Unemployment, growth, public finances … The evaluation is complicated, the situations vary greatly according to the host territories, time or type of migrants (family, economic, refugee).

But economists agree on general trends, generally favorable to the host countries. Overview of the facts and ideas received, when the "solidarity march and citizen" support for migrants arrives Saturday in Calais.

What impact on the job market?

In a report published in June, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) stressed that "the refugee crisis has heightened public concern about the perceived benefits of migration", with concerns about "wages or job. "

For Emmanuelle Auriol, of the Toulouse School of Economics, it is however" wrong "to say that the reception of immigrants" adds unemployment ". "Migrants occupy often unfilled jobs, whether in construction, restoration or personal services," she notes.

Another advantage, highlighted by the BSI Economics think tank: migratory flows increase demand by stimulating consumption, which "potentially creates jobs" in other sectors.

Still, the mbadive influx of refugees can have a short-term impact on the unemployment rate, in some countries. regions and certain segments of the population

In 2012, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), a parastatal body in the United Kingdom, estimated that 160,000 Britons could not find a job within five years precedents due to competition from immigration

In a study published on June 20, the OECD estimated that the number of unemployed could "increase by about 6%" by December 2020 in Germany , in the absence of measures to promote "access to employment for refugees"

A negative effect, however, considered temporary by many economists. "On average, and in the long run, studies converge to say that immigration does not have a negative effect on employment", insists Anthony Edo, researcher at the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (Cepii .

What impact on growth?

"There is no doubt that migration increases the gross domestic product" of the host countries, stimulating consumption and activity, badures Jean- Christophe Dumont, head of the migration department at the OECD

In a study published in mid-June, CNRS researchers also concluded, with regard to the specific case of asylum seekers and on the basis of data from 15 European countries, an influx of migrants led to an increase in GDP per capita, estimated at 0.32% over two years

"Often, arriving migrants have nothing, they need everything", says Emmanuelle Auriol. "To give them money is therefore to make a kind of Keynesian revival plan."

In the medium and long term, immigrants are also more inclined to engage in business. According to a study by the National Venture Capital Association, out of 10,000 immigrants in the United States, 62 create a business, a rate twice as high as for natives.

According to economists at the McKinsey Global Institute, immigrants have thus contributed nearly 10% of world GDP in 2015, when they represented only 3.4% of the international population.

What impact on public finances?

Immigration is often perceived as a an aggravating factor for public finances, particularly in countries such as France and Italy, which are heavily indebted – the argument generally made that immigrants receive more social benefits than they contribute.

An badertion of the received idea, according to Anthony Edo, who judges the tax impact of immigration "globally neutral". Because if the state must provide social protection for migrants, they are often young, and they work.

According to the OECD, foreigners are thus overrepresented in social benefits in the first years after their arrival, but then contribute to the economy, because of a favorable age structure that makes them weigh less on pensions.

Tito Boeri, patron of Italian social security, observed this week that his country in demographic decline needed immigrants to pay its pensions, and recommended the maintenance of a legal migration flow to ensure the balance of the Italian pension fund.