5:31 pm – Commercial War: US soybean growers between two fires

Terry Davidson is a collateral victim of the US-China trade war: with rising tariffs on US soybeans, this Illinois farmer could see the doors of his main market close

Washington imposed tariffs on 34 billion Chinese imports on Friday. Beijing responded with a 25% tax on hundreds of US imports, including soybeans. A measure that should greatly reduce the competitiveness of "made in the USA."

"We have survived since the 1800s and we still cultivate, I think we will continue," said AFP Mr. Davidson, 41 , which belongs to the fifth generation of farmers at Harvard, a town two hours north of Chicago in the north.

But like other farmers in Illinois, the first national producer of soybeans with 43,000 farmers, he is caught between two fires and does not know if Chinese taxes will affect the price of his crops.

"Other countries are trying to inflate their US soybean stocks, they are taking China's place," he said. it is to remain optimistic.

China is the largest buyer of American soybeans: it ordered $ 12 billion in 2017, or about 30% of the country's production.

Soybean, little expensive to produce and in high demand overseas, allowed Midwes farmers t keep the head out of the water, despite economic and climatic hazards

At Harvard, it covers hundreds of hectares. On the lands of the Davidson family, it represents half of the production, with corn.

The plants are already one meter high and the pods begin to appear in early July. Harvesting is expected early in the fall

Terry Davidson has no storage capacity and will have to sell his crop right after harvest at any price.

Again, he remains optimistic: "Our biggest Chinese customers have never mentioned soybean taxes and I am not worried because it will be over in the harvest season."

– Das Etats key to Trump –

But other professionals – and the groups that represent them – have already sounded the alarm. Soybean prices have fallen since May, as buyers anticipate the introduction of tariffs.

"In the short term, we take a hit," says Davie Stephens, a farmer in Kentucky (center-east), saying that Professionals feel helpless

"We did not experience many trade wars, for some of us it's the first one," says the 52-year-old farmer.

The majority of farmers vote Republican and supports President Donald Trump's willingness to negotiate more favorable trade deals. Notably in the face of China, with which Washington has a deficit of $ 375.2 billion in property in 2017.

But some doubt that the rise in customs taxes is the right approach and worry about the repercussions. 19659002] "The longer it lasts, the more China – and other customers – will try to find other sources of supply," said Wayne Fredericks, a member of the board of directors of the American Soybean Association, which encourages members to campaign on Twitter against the customs taxes imposed by Washington.

"We support efforts to rectify these trade imbalances.If it works, so much the better.If otherwise, there will be a lot of disappointment," warns Mr. Fredericks, farmer in Iowa (center)

For the Trump administration, the risk is also political, while parliamentary elections will be held in November. Soybeans are grown in the states that voted for him in 2016, and Iowa was a key state for his victory in the presidential election.

The question is how long farmers can hold.

Michael Boland, an agri-food industry specialist at the University of Minnesota, points out to AFP that with soybeans, farmers are already "not getting a lot of profits, taxes will reduce them to zero, or to enter the negative ".

At Harvard, Terry Davidson thinks that the industry will win against the administration: "There will be enough revolt" among farmers "to stop it."