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INTERVIEW – While Eurostat announces a further decline in fertility in Europe, Gérard-François Dumont is worried about a weakening of the French social protection model and a slowdown in European growth.
Eurostat's latest report published today shows that the EU's natural balance is negative for the third year in a row. In 2017, there were 5.3 million deaths for 5.1 million births. Nevertheless, there are 1.1 million additional inhabitants in Europe. This demographic variation is therefore due exclusively to the contribution of net migration. Demographer, economist, geographer and theoretician of the concept of "demographic winter", Professor Gérard-François Dumont, president of the journal Population & Avenir badyzes the situation in which Europe finds itself.
Le Figaro.fr.- For the third year in a row, the natural balance of the European Union is negative. Is this what you call the "demographic winter"?
Gérard-François Dumont : In fact, Europe entered the "demographic winter" in the mid-1970s, when fertility fell sharply and durably below generation replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman. Since 2015, the European Union has entered a new stage in which Europe's population growth is only ensured by immigration. However this situation is not homogeneous: there are still 15 countries whose birth rate is higher than the death rate, including France and the United Kingdom, against thirteen in the reverse situation, including Germany, Spain and Italy.
»READ ALSO – Hungary: Orban wants to halt population decline
To explain these disparities, two essential factors must be taken into account. At a political level, there is a strong correlation between the budgets allocated to family policy and the fertility rate. The higher these budgets, the higher the fertility rate is higher than the average for the European Union. Secondly, there is an important cultural aspect: in societies where marriage remains a prerequisite before having children, there are usually fewer births.
What are the consequences of declining fertility on the child? European economy?
They are multiple and they must not be underestimated. This decline in fertility is primarily the cause of fewer consumers in the EU and less economic stimulation. However, if European economic growth is so weak today, it is among others because it is not stimulated by consumption. This situation is economically unfavorable to all. For example, French companies exporting to our EU neighbors are directly affected by a number of consumers and even a drop in some of them. Moreover, a decline in the labor force that would not be curbed by an increase in the employment rate or the productivity of workers will undoubtedly lead to a drop in GDP.
Does this situation also have an impact on our labor force? social protection model?
Of course! When one observes the debate taking place in France around a new pension reform, one can only be sorry that the demographic issue, which is fundamental, is hardly addressed. We are certainly proposing a new parametric structural reform, not necessarily unwelcome, but the sustainability of our pension system depends first of all on the active population that finances it and therefore on the demographic situation. The main problem with future pension funding is that this labor force could shrink. In fact, François Hollande's five-year family policy unraveling has led to a drop in the fertility index, while our life expectancy remains one of the highest in the world.
The tensions that cross the border Can the EU also be explained by this "demographic winter"?
The intensity, more or less strong, of the political crisis between the countries of the European Union originates from the particularly intense demographic winter in Germany. In 2015, Si Angela Merkel opened her country to more than a million migrants, firstly because of the decline in the working population of her country to compensate for a lack of manpower from which the employers suffered. German, less than to make a humanitarian gesture as was said too much. In France, this decision of Merkel was very badly received by our leaders not only because it was taken unilaterally, but because France, unlike Germany, sees its active population grow and n is not short of manpower. The problem of France is qualitative, not quantitative, it is employability
This case, and many others, shows a great diversity of situations on a European scale. We can not then envisage any common demographic or family policy, which is therefore identical, on the part of the EU, which would be counterproductive as the situations vary according to the scale we are taking. [19659015]! function (f, b, e, v, n, t, s) {
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