Brussels is preparing for the worst-case scenario

Proof that time is bad: Thursday, July 19 the European Commission has published a document for the 27 Member States to inform them of the procedure to be followed in the absence of an agreement on the terms of the divorce with London, which is expected to intervene no later than 29 March 2019.

There are only eight months left to complete a divorce treaty, but given the political chaos in London, where Prime Minister Theresa May had the greatest difficulty in imposing on her own Conservative side her latest vision of Brexit, the fear of a "no deal" has skyrocketed in Brussels in recent days. "The preparations [fora no deal ] must be launched immediately, at all levels, and take into account all the scenarios", explains the Commission in its document.

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"We are working day and night on an agreement but economic operators and member states must be ready for all eventualities," said Mina Andreeva, spokeswoman for the Commission, Thursday. It is not the institution that is at the initiative of the document but the twenty-seven capitals: they specifically asked him to work there at the last European Council, on June 29.

Multiple and formidable consequences

However, to insist on this document the day when the chief negotiator of the Europeans, Michel Barnier, meets his new British equivalent, Dominic Raab, still seems the way for the community institution to make the British government aware that the scenario disaster is likely to materialize if he does not finally adopt a clear line on his vision of divorce.

In the absence of a divorce agreement, explains the commission in its "communication", the transition period claimed by London to complete its "future relationship" with the European Union (EU), which is scheduled to start Brexit D-Day on 30 March 2019 and end on 31 December 2020, it is obsolete. As of March 30, 2019, the United Kingdom will be considered as a third country of the EU.

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The consequences are many and formidable. European and British expatriates? No special arrangement will hold for them in the aftermath of Brexit: Europeans based in the United Kingdom will no longer be guaranteed their right of residence, as will the British settled in the Member States.

The latter will also have to have " reintroduces their border controls for all flows of goods and persons coming or going to the United Kingdom [contrôles douaniers mais aussi phytosanitaires, et sanitaires] ", specifies the Brussels document. Economic operators will also have to take into account that these controls "will severely impact transport" " will lead to significant delays" and " difficulties in ports" .

Raising the awareness of micro-enterprises and SMEs

If large companies are already making their arrangements, particularly in the financial sector, the Commission intends to raise awareness among SMEs / VSEs. " Many of them have no experience of trading with third countries because they trade only within the single market" . But these entities will have, once the United Kingdom left "to perform procedures [déclarations aux douanes] which they are not used at all but which are mandatory in the case of third countries".

If the Commission already mobilizes dozens of experts internally for the "no deal" most of the preparation work remains the responsibility of the States. For them, among other things, to be ready to disconnect the United Kingdom from their multiple computer databases, Brexit D day … Some have already taken the lead. Ireland in particular, probably the state most affected by the future Brexit with almost half of its agricultural production destined for the United Kingdom. Dublin has launched a website (prepareforbrexit.com) for SMEs / VSEs, allowing them to badess the impact of Brexit on their business. A loan system of up to EUR 5,000 has also been set up to help them prepare themselves.