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France seems to have left to not respect the carbon budget it has allocated itself. Instead of the 440 megatonnes set for the 2014-2018 period, its CO2 emissions could reach 458 megatonnes. According to a milestone set at the end of last week by the Ministry of Ecological and Solidarity Transition, the appointment of 398 megatonnes expected between 2019 and 2023 promises to be equally unlikely. The projections drawn up in the context of the revision of the energy roadmap and the low-carbon strategy result in an emission volume of 422 megatonnes.
These exceedances are the result of a series of downward corrections. The Climate Action Network (RAC), an NGO that attends the evaluation meetings of the ministry, first notes that "the objective of the law on the energy transition to have all the dwellings very well isolated in 2050 (BBC level) is abandoned with an average pace of 500,000 successful annual renovations by 2050 instead of the required 700,000 ".
" Catimini "
Another" setback ", the goal of this same law, adopted in 2015, to reach 32% of renewable energies (wind, solar, hydroelectric, biogas, etc.) in 2030 is "ceaselessly revised downward to 31%, even as France has pushed and obtained a binding target of 32% at the European level last June " points the NGO.
Its experts also note that the ambition to have new vehicles consuming on average 3 l / 100 km in 2030 is worn "at 4 l / 100 km" . Finally, last dreaded skid, the total energy consumption of France would fall by only 17% in 2030 and 44% in 2050, and not by respectively 20% and 50%.
Faster decline of fossils [19659004] But if the situation is worrying, she is not desperate. First, the scenario that emerges " will be brought to be adjusted in the fall" including measures taken in the short and medium term, warns the Ministry of Ecological Transition and Solidarity in the document evaluation that AFP had access to. Then, the delay accused by France should be "caught up" between 2024 and 2028, it is indicated there. This recovery of lost ground will be due to faster reductions in CO2 emissions from the industrial, energy and agricultural sectors.
Another positive note, the targets on fossil fuel consumption should be largely exceeded (-40% in 2030 instead of -30%). The decline of coal is expected to be particularly spectacular (- 82%) with the planned shutdown of the last power stations fueled by this fuel. Natural gas and oil consumption are expected to have fallen by 28 and 40 per cent in the next twelve years
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Joel Cossardeaux
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