This summer, Michel should go in search of 2.66 billion

The report of the Monitoring Committee fell. Delivering a two-level reading. Addition 2019 starts at $ 2.66 billion, but could be much tougher.

So here's the hour of budget accuracy for the Michel government. The chopper is the report submitted by the Monitoring Committee, the club of senior officials that badyzes and aggregates the data provided by the administrations of all sides, to determine the extent of the turn of the screw to give, history of to stick to the budgetary trajectory handed over to the European Commission last April, in the framework of the Stability Program 2018-2021

What did we already know? That at the time of handing over this road map to Europe, Michel had his little idea of ​​the path he had to go in order to return to structural equilibrium (that is, ie cleaned up from the effects of the economic situation and non-recurring measures) in 2020. That is about 5.7 billion euros, to be saved in 2019 and 2020. For Belgium as a whole, even if the burden is mainly on Entity I (Federal and Secu) and relatively little on Entity II (Regions, Communities and Local Authorities) – the latter only showing a deficit of 0.11% of GDP (ie one small 500 million) to be filled in two years.

It was still known that the Federal Planning Bureau, the official supplier of forecasts for the budget, was much more pessimistic at the end of June, by aligning itself rather with the mood strictly conservative Europe than on optimism, sometimes a forced strand, of Michel. The addition was necessarily more salty: 8.4 billion by 2020, including 4.6 billion to close the 2019 budget.

Here we go: what does the Monitoring Committee say? – who, as a reminder, only leans at the bedside of Entity I? The answer is not so simple as it seems. Let's start with the most square. By 2020 and unchanged policy, the Federal will have to get hold of 6.68 billion . This is the price of a return to structural equilibrium, to be disbursed in two years. In the shorter term, so that his plan 2019 respects its engagements, Michel must find 2.66 billion.

Not really a tile for the government, because in its ranks, it was expected a painful approaching 2.59 billion . And rather far from the figures of the Plan – what to relegate it to the role of Cbadandra?

Except that things are not so simple. When the numbers of one do not stick with those of the other, two options: either there is a wacky in the band, or there is a logical explanation. That is here. The Monitoring is based on a series of hypotheses some of which seem to be badumed. Like taking into account, contrary to the Plan, feedback effects related to certain measures, notably concerning starter jobs, e-commerce or the responsibility of employers and employees in terms of disability. No account has been taken of the additional costs (61.2 million) related to asylum and migration, or the payment by Belfius of a possible interim dividend.

On the other hand, it seems obvious that the Monitoring Committee lost all or part of its political independence. Michel twisted his arm so that he incorporated some of his own badumptions – which did not stop senior officials from grumbling by using bold and / or underlined characters. Three points to report, which serve as doubts hovering over the conclusions of this report.

A: the advance payments, which we know that 'they have exploded since the reform of corporate tax and doubling the penalty for late payment. For Europe and the Plan, it is entirely a "one shot", and even the BNB, which initially counted on a "recurrence rate" of 40% reviewed this one sharply downward, writes the Monitoring. Who was required to wear government glbades and qualify this leap of structural up to 50%. While not allowing itself to be entirely done, since it costed the cost badociated with this optimism Michele: 1.8 billion.

Two: tax shift, for which a technical correction was refurged, hot potato way, from Entity I to Entity II, without the latter integrating it into his accounts. For 2019, there is talk of 523 million wagons.

Three: on the side of health care, Inami predicts an overrun of 503 million in 2019 – in order to avoid it, measures will have to be taken.

Add up all these uncertainties, and you still spend, for 2019, from 2.66 to 5.48 billion. The two sides of the same coin, which we already know Michel will opt for the most brilliant.