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Who will win the 105th Tour de France ? Even though Chris Froome and the Sky monopolize the trophy since 2012 (except in 2014 when Nibali had triumphed), the vice is tightening as the British's rivals increase at the same time as the latter's age. Have we returned to a period when several strong men could legitimately claim to win the Great Loop? Cyclism'Actu presents you the main ones as well as several tracks allowing them to scroll in yellow on the Champs Elysees.
The Tour de France 2018 course by Chris Froome
Romain Bardet : Present on the podium of the last two editions, the Auvergnat once again seems to be in good shape at the beginning of July. After a Dauphine where he bitterly prepared without playing the win against Geraint Thomas the French arrived this year in a skin of favorites. So far, the man from Brioude has managed a challenge that many high hopes of French sports have failed: bear all the pressure on his shoulders and race as he intended. All this has also earned him the praise of Alberto Contador himself.
Where he can win : On the stage of the Rosière that he is his teammates know perfectly, Brioude's man could as he did in Dauphine put pressure on all the favorites in the descent.
Where he can lose it : On paper, the team AG2R La Mondiale may be at a disadvantage in the Cholet team time trial, especially against teams as strong in the field as BMC from Richie Porte where the Sky of Christopher Froome but this step looks uncertain. Bardet has not yet proved any real progress on the timed exercise and could pay the bill on the ultimate time trial at Espelette as last year at Marseille .
Vincenzo Nibali : The experience of the "Messina Shark" will probably be his most formidable weapon for his 7 th participation in the Great Loop. The winner of the 2014 edition had a very intense and prolific start to the year with a victory over Milan-San Remo at first, before refocusing on his goal of the year, the Tour. He crossed the Dauphiné as a ghost and for the sole purpose of gaining pace, before indulging with his armada in a final stage of the same kind as that carried out the year of his victory
Where he can win : A Roubaix . In 2014, the Italian, then at Astana had made a huge blow on the pavements of the North, leaving behind all the favorites ( Froome giving up on falling, Contador distanced before giving up on fall a few days later) with the help of his teammates. At ease on this kind of terrain, Nibali could disrupt runners much less comfortable in this exercise. The stage of Portet could equally well suit him according to his position in the general week 3.
Where he can lose : On the stage of Alpe d 'Huez which will be particularly long and difficult with the Madeleine and the Croix de Fer as an aperitif. Nibali has often stuck on this kind of very long and weary stages controlled by the big stables such as Sky . At 33, this stage could be fatal to the double winner of Giro .
Nairo Quintana : It's been repeated every year since 2015, but when will the Colombian win his first success on the Great Loop? Second in 2016, third in 2017, tired by the Giro in 2017, the native of Combita returns this year with the Tour as the main objective. Having adopted several changes in his preparation program including fewer days of racing, he will try to realize his dream this year to complete his collection of Grand Tours.
Where he can win : At Alpe d'Huez . Like any self-respecting Colombian, Quintana loves the mountains more than anything and this series of three long, hard alpine difficulties suits him like a glove. Moreover, the leader of the Movistar twice succeeded in 2013 and 2015 to mater Christopher Froome on this mythical climb where his spiritual ancestor, Luis Herrera was established in 1984.
Where he can lose it : As a pure climber, Quintana remains a friable runner on lands as rugged as the 15 paved sectors waiting for the riders to ride. stage 9. "Nairoman" will probably have to rely on a formidable team Movistar if he does not want to lose everything that day.
Mikel Landa : What about Landa ? The co-leader of Movistar with Quintana and Valverde arrives on this Tour with unpublished ambitions. Forced to play the teammates of luxury with Froome last year, the Spaniard repeats loudly his ambitions of victory. The whole question is how he will behave with his two co-leaders.
Where he can win : In the mountains of course, but it is especially in the Pyrenees that Landa forged his reputation last year at the stage of Foix where he accompanied Alberto Contador on a short but intense stage. The Luchon-Col du Portet stage in an even shorter and explosive format could allow Landa to play a big blow with his leaders.
Where he can lose it: Finally, one of the major dangers that it will be for Quintana or Landa will be his alter-ego in the team Movistar . If no internal rivalry has seriously emerged during this beginning of the year, it is possible that the armada concocted by Eusebio Unzué is a double-edged sword that could cause everything to be lost. one or all.
Richie Porte : Last year, Richie Porte arrived at Düsseldorf in the shoes of Froome's main rival before to fall seriously in the descent of Mont du Chat . A year later, the Australian returns with the same ambitions and visibly the same legs as last year, as evidenced by his victory over the Tour de Suisse acquired while mastering, while its beginning of the season had proven to be rather average.
Where he can win : The time trial by teams of Cholet will logically be a launching pad for the leader of the BMC who can count on a team that has few rivals on this exercise. The former lieutenant of Froome could also enjoy an arrival at the summit such as that of Rosière to unleash other favorites blunted by a stage that promises to be explosive. [19659006] Where he can lose it : On fall or racing incident. Indeed, the two years he was leader, Porte suffered the wrong fate, between a puncture in Cherbourg in 2016 which makes him lose 1'20 '' and his fall in the Mont du Chat last year. The stage of Roubaix could be that making the Australian lose his footing even if he will be accompanied at this stage by specialists in the field, such as Greg Van Avermaet. [19659008]
Rigoberto Uran : Often criticized last year for his lack of panache, the other Colombian still showed exceptional regularity to climb on the second step of the podium to the surprise. The leader of the team EF Education First-Drapac returns with the same ambitions this year to find the same podium, if not more.
Where he can win : Uran is the archetypal rider who rides the train at a steady pace. The various regular climbs may be favorable, but it is unclear whether the Colombian will choose to attack or stay on the lookout for his direct opponents and bet on the last lap to try to style everyone
Where he can lose : The stage of Saint Lary 65 kilometers long will most certainly be explosive rarely seen in recent years on the Great Loop. The managerial qualities of Uran may not be sufficient to keep pace with the other cadors who will perform this stage at great speed.
Tom Dumoulin : He too finally chose to overtake Giro and Tour de France . Unhappy second behind the indomitable Froome in Italy, Dumoulin waited a few days early June before making his decision and targeting the general on the Great Loop. A challenge for the Dutchman who will have to do everything to recover the best of a Tour of Italy obviously very demanding, with the weather conditions as well as the multiple turns of the race.
Where he can winning him : We think Dumoulin, we think chrono. The champion of the world of the discipline, knowing himself used by the Giro could have as tactics to play with a maximum of delicacy and economy to wait for the ultimate chrono of Espelette to resume one last time. If his team Sunweb remains one of the best in the world for the team time of Cholet it will struggle to compete with the armadas BMC and Sky but should still more than limit the case. The ascent of the Rosière quite rolling, could as well serve the qualities of roll of the "Butterfly of Maastricht".
Where he can lose it : Probably in the third week. At this time, the body of Tom Dumoulin could suffer the devastating effects of all the efforts accumulated since early May and the addition could be particularly salty, especially on the pbad of Portet where any failure will be prohibited.
Christopher Froome : He will be there. The quadruple winner of the event, on the steps of the gallows since November and his control of salbutamol, was finally cleared by the UCI and can therefore run the race as any runner lambda. He will be looking for a historical quadruplet Tour Vuelta Giro and Tour . With the World Cup of football, the Briton was able to arrange as Tom Dumoulin an extra week of rest. Will this be enough to keep pace with his rivals, who are obviously growing in numbers and qualities from year to year?
Where he can win : Early in 19459004 ] It is possible that Froome and his armada Sky were in top shape, and set their pace at the start. The team time of Cholet suits them like a glove and could already create important differences with other favorites ( Bardet Yates …). The first pbades of Alps may be the scene of a scenario already seen: the steamroller of the Sky which sends its leader on orbit, in the first or second stage alpine, atop the Rosière or at Grand-Bornand . The Sky would then padlock the race until the chrono of Espelette where Froome would definitively discard any hope to his rivals. This more or less plausible scenario reflects in all cases the logic of Sky : a controlled race, calculated from the first kilometer to Noirmoutier until the bell of Champs Elysees and totally restrained, what did the team Dave Brailsford on his 5 successes since 2012.
Where he can lose : The major question for Froome will be the one of his recovery. If he does not pbad this test, he will simply not be able to play with the favorites. We have seen in recent years what could have happened when great champions such as Contador (in 2011 and 2015) and Quintana (in 2017) failed in their quest for double , too tired by a practice of cycling that has evolved since the double success of Marco Pantani in 1998. In this perspective, Froome could see his chances of victory crumbling widely during the stage of the Alpe d'Huez which will be long and particularly tiring, especially since the Briton has never really appreciated these 21 turns of the mythical climb, suffering each time a failure which could have cost him dearly. The stage of Col du Portet will be totally explosive and a priori out of control of his teammates and could make the Brit wobble ..
In addition to all these fellows, other riders who even if they are outsiders, will have their card to play to shake this not so established order. What is certain is that their presence will strongly influence the final run of the race: Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott), Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Bob Jungels (Quick-Step Floors), Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), Primoz Roglic (LottoNL-Jumbo), Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha Alpecin), Rafal Majka (Bora-Hansgrohe), Jakob Fuglsang (Astana) and Daniel Martin (UAE Emirates Team).
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